Cannes Award for Grand Prix
Leader sits at 7% across 5 bound outcomes, runner-up at 6%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Sheep in the Box
Outcomes
5
winner-take-all
Runner-up
6¢
Coward
Spread
1pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
236 days
Venue
Kalshi
5 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Cannes Award for Grand Prix
Cannes Award for Grand Prix?: Coward
KXCANNESGRANDPRIX-26-COW
Cannes Award for Grand Prix?: Minotaur
KXCANNESGRANDPRIX-26-MIN
Cannes Award for Grand Prix?: Fatherland
KXCANNESGRANDPRIX-26-FAT
Cannes Award for Grand Prix?: Hope
KXCANNESGRANDPRIX-26-HOP
Cannes Award for Grand Prix?: Sheep in the Box
KXCANNESGRANDPRIX-26-SHE
Analysis
This 7% probability reflects the market's assessment that the film 'Minotaur' will win the Grand Prix award at the 2026 Cannes Film Festival. The Grand Prix is typically awarded to the second-most acclaimed film at the festival, behind the Palme d'Or. Current pricing suggests relatively low confidence in this outcome compared to other contenders—notably 'Hope,' which carries an 18% probability for the Palme d'Or. The probability will primarily be influenced by the quality and reception of films selected for competition, the preferences of this year's jury, and how 'Minotaur' performs relative to other entries when the festival concludes. The Cannes Film Festival typically occurs in May, making the award ceremony the key resolution event. Trading volume remains thin across most contracts, indicating limited market liquidity and potentially high uncertainty around film festival outcomes generally.
- ›'Minotaur' must be selected for official competition at the 2026 Cannes Film Festival and complete its screening
- ›The film's critical reception and peer performance relative to approximately 15-20 other competition entries will determine jury consideration
- ›The composition and voting preferences of the 2026 jury panel remain unknown and substantially influence award distribution
- ›Trading volume for this contract is minimal ($6 in 24-hour volume), suggesting low confidence in price discovery
- ›The Palme d'Or frontrunner 'Hope' at 18% indicates market belief that other films are more likely winners of top awards
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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