Cannes Award for Jury Prize
Leader sits at 8% across 10 bound outcomes, runner-up at 8%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Coward
Outcomes
10
winner-take-all
Runner-up
8¢
Coward
Spread
0pp
contested
24h volume
$72
thin orderbook
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
236 days
Venue
Kalshi
10 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Cannes Award for Jury Prize
Cannes Award for Jury Prize?: Fjord
KXCANNESJURYPRIZE-26-FJO
Cannes Award for Jury Prize?: Minotaur
KXCANNESJURYPRIZE-26-MIN
Cannes Award for Jury Prize?: Fatherland
KXCANNESJURYPRIZE-26-FAT
Cannes Award for Jury Prize?: Hope
KXCANNESJURYPRIZE-26-HOP
Cannes Award for Jury Prize?: Sheep in the Box
KXCANNESJURYPRIZE-26-SHE
Cannes Award for Jury Prize?: All of Sudden
KXCANNESJURYPRIZE-26-ALL
Cannes Award for Jury Prize?: Das Geträumte Abenteuer
KXCANNESJURYPRIZE-26-DAS
Cannes Award for Jury Prize?: Coward
KXCANNESJURYPRIZE-26-COW
Cannes Award for Jury Prize?: La Bola Negra
KXCANNESJURYPRIZE-26-LAB
Cannes Award for Jury Prize?: Parallel Tales
KXCANNESJURYPRIZE-26-PAR
Analysis
The 18% probability reflects market expectations that 'Hope' will win the Palme d'Or at the 2026 Cannes Film Festival. This represents a narrow lead among multiple competing films, with the outcome hinging on jury preferences and festival momentum. Trading volume on the top contract ($197 in 24 hours) indicates modest interest; the wider field of candidates keeps any single film's odds modest. The probability will shift based on pre-festival reviews, industry buzz, and any emerging favorites as the festival approaches. The Cannes jury will make the final determination when they convene to vote, likely in mid-May 2026.
- ›'Hope' holds a 3x probability lead over the runner-up film (18% vs 10%), suggesting meaningful but not dominant market confidence in its chances.
- ›Trading volume is concentrated in the top contract, while secondary candidates show minimal daily activity, indicating low conviction in alternatives rather than consensus certainty.
- ›The Palme d'Or market fragments across multiple films, with no single title capturing majority probability, typical of prestigious awards where jury taste varies.
- ›The festival takes place in May 2026; jury deliberations and announcement will occur within weeks, providing a hard resolution date.
- ›Kalshi's 20 bound contracts show modest leverage and depth, suggesting limited speculative positioning relative to typical major awards markets.
What moved the line
- May 7All of Sudden↑7pp1→8¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 3 min ago.