CD Achuapa vs. Antigua GFC - More Markets
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 44% across 7 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
44%
7 contracts
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$906
7 contracts
Closes
May 6, 2026
0 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
7 clusters across 7 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 22% of their title tokens — “Kawasaki Frontale vs. Tōkyō Verdy - More Markets: Tōkyō Verdy” vs “Beijing Guoan FC vs. Dalian Yingbo FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Kawasaki Frontale vs. Tōkyō Verdy - More Markets: Tōkyō Verdy
Kawasaki Frontale vs. Tōkyō Verdy - More Markets: Tōkyō Verdy (-1.5)
0x2ae2eb…68c8
Cluster 2
Beijing Guoan FC vs. Dalian Yingbo FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
Beijing Guoan FC vs. Dalian Yingbo FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0xd0a2f0…02d4
Cluster 3
Yunnan Yukun FC vs. Zhejiang Zhiye FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
Yunnan Yukun FC vs. Zhejiang Zhiye FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0xc6f8d0…d7bf
Cluster 4
Wuhan San Zhen FC vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
Wuhan San Zhen FC vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0x4612ca…3182
Cluster 5
Shanghai Haigang FC vs. Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
Shanghai Haigang FC vs. Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0x64562d…92f6
Cluster 6
Vanraure Hachinohe FC vs. Shōnan Bellmāre - More Markets: O/U 3.5
Vanraure Hachinohe FC vs. Shōnan Bellmāre - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0xf8c905…86be
Cluster 7
Punjab FC vs. Chennaiyin FC - More Markets: Punjab FC
Punjab FC vs. Chennaiyin FC - More Markets: Punjab FC (-1.5)
0xea81e1…2c80
Analysis
This 44% probability reflects the market's assessment that CD Achuapa will achieve a specific outcome against Antigua GFC in an upcoming match. The current level suggests meaningful uncertainty, with roughly equal backing for both the predicted outcome and alternatives. The probability is likely anchored to recent team form, head-to-head records, and home/away status. Key drivers moving this probability would include changes to team lineups due to injury or suspension, betting movement reflecting sharp money, and any shifts in match conditions or venue factors. The scheduled match date will serve as the decisive catalyst, resolving the prediction once the final result is recorded. Until then, the market will gradually adjust as new information about team readiness and tactical approaches emerges.
- ›Recent performance records of both CD Achuapa and Antigua GFC in league play directly influence probability calibration
- ›Team sheet changes, player injuries, or suspensions announced before match day would drive significant probability shifts
- ›Head-to-head historical results and home/away advantage factor into the current 44% assessment
- ›Betting volume and directional money flow on linked contracts indicates whether professional bettors are positioning for higher or lower outcomes
- ›The scheduled match date represents the binary resolution point where prediction uncertainty terminates
What moved the line
- May 6Tōkyō Verdy (-1.5)↓20pp26→6¢ · Polymarket
- May 6O/U 3.5↓20pp40→20¢ · Polymarket
- May 6O/U 2.5↑9pp62→71¢ · Polymarket
- May 6Punjab FC (-1.5)↓3pp37→34¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 1 d ago.