SimpleFunctions
ClosedLast odds shown below are frozen at close (May 9, 2026). Future questions tracked on /odds.
Winner-take-all · 3 outcomes3 contractsPolymarketclosed 2 h agoCloses May 8, 2026 · 0d

CD Coquimbo Unido vs. Club Universitario de Deportes

Leader sits at 43% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 34%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.

Leader probability

43%

CD Coquimbo Unido

runner-up 34¢leader 43¢

Outcomes

3

winner-take-all

Runner-up

34¢

Draw (CD Coquimbo Unido vs.

Spread

9pp

contested

24h volume

$14K

liquid

Closes

May 8, 2026

0 days

Venue

Polymarket

3 bound

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayCD Coquimbo Unido: 47% (3 days, 3 points)CD Coquimbo Unido: 47% on 2026-05-08Draw (CD Coquimbo Unido vs. Club Universitario de Deportes): 33% (3 days, 3 points)Draw (CD Coquimbo Unido vs. Club Universitario de Deportes): 33% on 2026-05-08Club Universitario de Deportes: 27% (3 days, 3 points)Club Universitario de Deportes: 27% on 2026-05-08
CD Coquimbo Unido47¢Draw (CD Coquimbo Unido vs. Club Universitario de Deportes)33¢Club Universitario de Deportes27¢
Top 3 candidates by current price · 3d

Bracket family

How the bracket ladder is priced.

Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.

Analysis

This 35% probability reflects the aggregated expectation across two markets that CD Coquimbo Unido will not defeat Club Universitario de Deportes in an upcoming match. The current level suggests a lean toward Universitario, though the outcome remains genuinely uncertain. Key drivers include team form, head-to-head history, and current league positioning. The resolution will depend on the actual match result on the scheduled date. Market participants are pricing in Universitario as slight favorites, but the 35% assigned to Coquimbo indicates meaningful probability of an upset or draw, depending on the market's settlement rules.

  • CD Coquimbo Unido's recent win-loss record and goal differential compared to Club Universitario de Deportes heading into the match
  • Head-to-head historical performance between these two teams, including results from the current and previous seasons
  • Current league standings and points differential, which may reflect underlying quality gaps
  • Availability of key players due to injury or suspension for either squad before match day
  • The match outcome on the scheduled date, which will definitively resolve the contract

What moved the line

  • May 8CD Coquimbo Unido4pp4347¢ · Polymarket

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

More like this

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 2 h ago.