SimpleFunctions
ClosedLast odds shown below are frozen at close (May 7, 2026). Future questions tracked on /odds.
5 contractsPolymarketclosed 1 d agoCloses May 6, 2026 · 0d

CD Malacateco vs. Comunicaciones FC - More Markets: CD Malacateco (-1.5)

Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 50% across 5 Polymarket contracts.

Implied probability

50%
0%50%100%

Kalshi

not bound

Polymarket

50%

5 contracts

Cross-venue gap

single venue

24h move

no pin

24h volume

$882

5 contracts

Closes

May 6, 2026

0 days

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayAggregate: 42% (3 days, 3 points)Aggregate: 42% on 2026-05-06
Aggregate of 5 contracts · 3d

Bracket families

5 clusters across 5 contracts.

These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.

Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters

The top two clusters share only 22% of their title tokens — “Kawasaki Frontale vs. Tōkyō Verdy - More Markets: Tōkyō Verdy” vs “Beijing Guoan FC vs. Dalian Yingbo FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.

Cluster 1

Kawasaki Frontale vs. Tōkyō Verdy - More Markets: Tōkyō Verdy

1 contract$384

Cluster 2

Beijing Guoan FC vs. Dalian Yingbo FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5

1 contract$254

Cluster 3

Yunnan Yukun FC vs. Zhejiang Zhiye FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5

1 contract$134

Cluster 4

Wuhan San Zhen FC vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5

1 contract$82

Cluster 5

Shanghai Haigang FC vs. Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5

1 contract$28

Analysis

This probability indicates a 50% chance that CD Malacateco will win by at least 2 goals against Comunicaciones FC. The current split assessment reflects uncertainty about both teams' recent form, head-to-head history, and home-field advantage. Malacateco's probability would increase if they demonstrate strong offensive output or if Comunicaciones shows defensive vulnerabilities in preceding matches. The match result will be determined when the game is played, making the actual scoreline the primary resolver of this market. Bettors typically evaluate team lineup news, injury reports, and recent performance metrics in the days leading up to kickoff.

  • Malacateco's goal-scoring rate in their last 5 league matches compared to historical averages
  • Comunicaciones FC's defensive record, specifically goals conceded in away matches this season
  • Head-to-head historical performance between these teams over the past 3-5 years
  • Home or away status for Malacateko and Comunicaciones in this fixture
  • Whether either team is dealing with significant injuries or suspensions to key players

What moved the line

  • May 6Tōkyō Verdy (-1.5)20pp266¢ · Polymarket
  • May 6O/U 2.59pp6271¢ · Polymarket

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

More like this

Adjacent prediction questions.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 1 d ago.