CD Riestra vs. Grêmio FBPA
Leader sits at 35% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 33%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Draw (CD Riestra vs. Grêmio FBPA)
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
33¢
Grêmio FBPA
Spread
2pp
contested
24h volume
$703
thin orderbook
Closes
May 5, 2026
0 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
CD Riestra vs. Grêmio FBPA
Analysis
This 60% probability reflects market expectations that the CD Riestra vs. Grêmio FBPA match will feature fewer than 1.5 total goals scored. The relatively low volume across contracts ($0 in 24-hour trading) suggests limited market depth and confidence in the outcome. Key drivers of this level include team defensive strength, recent scoring trends, and tactical matchups. The probability would shift based on team lineups, weather conditions, or injury reports closer to kickoff. The primary uncertainty resolver is the match result itself, which will either confirm or contradict the current under/over expectation. Significant movement could occur if either team's form changes materially or if early-match conditions (first 15 minutes) suggest different offensive threat levels than currently priced in.
- ›The 60¢ O/U 1.5 contract represents the leading market opinion; a total of 0 or 1 goal aligns with this probability, while 2+ goals contradicts it
- ›Grêmio FBPA is priced at 33¢ to win outright, lower than the under expectation, suggesting defensive structures or scoring constraints are the primary driver
- ›Zero 24-hour trading volume across all 12 contracts indicates thin liquidity and potential vulnerability to sharp information or late-breaking team news
- ›The -2.5 spread contract trades at 11¢, implying low confidence in Grêmio FBPA beating CD Riestra by 3+ goals, limiting upside offensive scenarios
- ›Grêmio FBPA Both Teams to Score probability (42¢) is 18 points below the under contract (60¢), suggesting asymmetric risk—either team scoring twice is viewed as unlikely
What moved the line
- May 2CD Riestra↓6pp41→35¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 2 d ago.