CD Riestra vs. Grêmio FBPA - More Markets
Leader sits at 57% across 9 bound outcomes, runner-up at 41%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
O/U 1.5
Outcomes
9
winner-take-all
Runner-up
41¢
Both Teams to Score
Spread
16pp
contested
24h volume
$7
thin orderbook
Closes
May 5, 2026
0 days
Venue
Polymarket
9 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
CD Riestra vs. Grêmio FBPA - More Markets
CD Riestra vs. Grêmio FBPA - More Markets: O/U 4.5
0xc7601f…db86
CD Riestra vs. Grêmio FBPA - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0x47cce0…4716
CD Riestra vs. Grêmio FBPA - More Markets: Both Teams to Score
0x33ab08…dfb5
CD Riestra vs. Grêmio FBPA - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0xb86c02…e733
CD Riestra vs. Grêmio FBPA - More Markets: O/U 1.5
0x13e665…5923
CD Riestra vs. Grêmio FBPA - More Markets: Grêmio FBPA (-2.5)
0x006111…5a96
CD Riestra vs. Grêmio FBPA - More Markets: CD Riestra (-2.5)
0xe21ef7…84f6
CD Riestra vs. Grêmio FBPA - More Markets: Grêmio FBPA (-1.5)
0xe873fe…a5b1
CD Riestra vs. Grêmio FBPA - More Markets: CD Riestra (-1.5)
0xb9a1c0…18b0
Analysis
This probability reflects the likelihood that CD Riestra and Grêmio FBPA play additional matches beyond their scheduled fixture. At 28%, the market implies this outcome is viewed as less probable than not, suggesting most traders expect the primary match to conclude without requiring supplementary games. The current level likely reflects standard expectations for fixture scheduling in their respective leagues, with upward pressure coming from tournament formats that permit replays or extended competition rounds, and downward pressure from formats that resolve matches decisively. The key catalyst is the official tournament structure and any relevant playoff or advancement rules that would determine whether additional matches are mandated or possible. Recent changes to league scheduling or unexpected circumstances (fixture congestion, scheduling conflicts) could shift expectations materially.
- ›Tournament format rules: whether the competition permits or requires replays, extra time resolution, or multi-leg fixtures that would trigger 'more markets'
- ›Current league scheduling status: any publicly announced fixture backlog, congestion, or calendar constraints affecting these teams that might necessitate rescheduling or additional matches
- ›Historical precedent: frequency with which CD Riestra and Grêmio FBPA have played multiple matches in single competition cycles, if applicable
- ›Playoff or advancement mechanics: whether these teams' competitive positions demand extended rounds or additional qualifying matches under current rules
- ›Market liquidity and contract volume: the low 24-hour volumes across top contracts suggest limited trader conviction, indicating high uncertainty in expectations
What moved the line
- May 6Grêmio FBPA (-2.5)↑88pp12→100¢ · Polymarket
- May 6Grêmio FBPA (-1.5)↑78pp22→100¢ · Polymarket
- May 6Both Teams to Score↓40pp40→0¢ · Polymarket
- May 6CD Riestra (-1.5)↓22pp22→0¢ · Polymarket
- May 6O/U 4.5↓20pp20→0¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 2 d ago.