SimpleFunctions
ClosedLast odds shown below are frozen at close (May 8, 2026). Future questions tracked on /odds.
Winner-take-all · 9 outcomes9 contractsPolymarketclosed 1 d agoCloses May 7, 2026 · 0d

CD Universidad Católica vs. Cruzeiro EC - More Markets

Leader sits at 70% across 9 bound outcomes, runner-up at 52%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.

Leader probability

70%

O/U 1.5

runner-up 52¢leader 70¢

Outcomes

9

winner-take-all

Runner-up

52¢

Both Teams to Score

Spread

18pp

contested

24h volume

$2K

modest

Closes

May 7, 2026

0 days

Venue

Polymarket

9 bound

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayO/U 1.5: 40% (3 days, 3 points)O/U 1.5: 40% on 2026-05-07Both Teams to Score: 30% (3 days, 3 points)Both Teams to Score: 30% on 2026-05-07O/U 2.5: 24% (3 days, 2 points)O/U 2.5: 24% on 2026-05-07
O/U 1.540¢Both Teams to Score30¢O/U 2.524¢
Top 3 candidates by current price · 3d

Bracket family

How the bracket ladder is priced.

Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.

Analysis

This 30% probability indicates that markets assess a roughly one-in-three chance that the CD Universidad Católica vs. Cruzeiro EC match will feature more than 2.5 goals. The current level reflects relatively low scoring expectations for this matchup, likely driven by typical defensive capabilities in South American club football and recent team form. Market conviction appears modest, evidenced by the over/under 2.5 contract pricing at 45 cents—closer to neutral than extreme. The resolution depends entirely on the match outcome once played, with the actual goal total determining whether over-2.5 expectations prove accurate. Key variables include both teams' recent scoring patterns, head-to-head history, and tactical approach. The contract's zero recent trading volume suggests limited current market interest, potentially reflecting uncertainty about match timing or participant availability.

  • Recent goal-scoring rates for both CD Universidad Católica and Cruzeiro EC in their last 5-10 competitive matches
  • Historical over/under performance in direct matchups or similar-tier South American club fixtures
  • Team formation and defensive organization typical for these clubs in comparable competition levels
  • Availability and form of key offensive players for both sides ahead of the scheduled match
  • Market pricing across multiple over/under thresholds (2.5, 4.5) showing how conviction changes at different goal totals

What moved the line

  • May 7O/U 1.531pp7140¢ · Polymarket
  • May 7Both Teams to Score22pp5230¢ · Polymarket
  • May 7O/U 2.520pp4424¢ · Polymarket
  • May 7CD Universidad Católica (-2.5)13pp316¢ · Polymarket
  • May 6CD Universidad Católica (-2.5)12pp153¢ · Polymarket

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

More like this

Adjacent prediction questions.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 1 d ago.