SimpleFunctions
ClosedLast odds shown below are frozen at close (May 9, 2026). Future questions tracked on /odds.
Winner-take-all · 2 outcomes2 contractsPolymarketclosed 3 h agoCloses May 9, 2026 · 0d

CDT Real Oruro vs. FC Universitario - More Markets: CDT Real Oruro (-1.5)

Leader sits at 30% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 17%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.

Leader probability

30%

CDT Real Oruro (-1.5)

runner-up 17¢leader 30¢

Outcomes

2

winner-take-all

Runner-up

17¢

CDT Real Oruro (-2.5)

Spread

13pp

contested

24h volume

$0

thin orderbook

Closes

May 9, 2026

0 days

Venue

Polymarket

2 bound

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayCDT Real Oruro (-1.5): 31% (3 days, 3 points)CDT Real Oruro (-1.5): 31% on 2026-05-08CDT Real Oruro (-2.5): 17% (3 days, 3 points)CDT Real Oruro (-2.5): 17% on 2026-05-08
CDT Real Oruro (-1.5)31¢CDT Real Oruro (-2.5)17¢
Top 2 candidates by current price · 3d

Bracket family

How the bracket ladder is priced.

Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.

Analysis

This market reflects a 38% probability that CDT Real Oruro will win by 2 or more goals against FC Universitario. The pricing suggests modest confidence in a decisive Oruro victory, though significant uncertainty remains. Key drivers of the current level include each team's recent form, goal-scoring capability, and defensive consistency in their league. The probability will move based on team news—injuries, lineup changes, or tactical shifts—and historical head-to-head performance. The match itself will provide the definitive resolution, with the exact outcome determining whether the 38% assessment was calibrated correctly. Low trading volume suggests limited liquidity and potentially wider bid-ask spreads on these contracts.

  • CDT Real Oruro's recent goal differential and conversion rate compared to FC Universitario's defensive record in the current season
  • Absence of major injury reports or suspensions for either team's key attacking or defending players
  • Historical head-to-head results between the two clubs, including goal margins in prior matchups
  • Home/away advantage status of CDT Real Oruro and documented performance variance across venues
  • Current league standings and momentum trends for both teams in the 2-3 matches leading up to kickoff

What moved the line

  • May 7CDT Real Oruro (-2.5)6pp2620¢ · Polymarket
  • May 7CDT Real Oruro (-1.5)3pp3431¢ · Polymarket
  • May 8CDT Real Oruro (-2.5)3pp2017¢ · Polymarket

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

Lateral coverage

Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.

This page aggregates 2 contracts (30% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 3 h ago.