Cerezo Ōsaka vs. V-Varen Nagasaki - More Markets
Leader sits at 78% across 9 bound outcomes, runner-up at 55%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
O/U 1.5
Outcomes
9
winner-take-all
Runner-up
55¢
Both Teams to Score
Spread
23pp
contested
24h volume
$353
thin orderbook
Closes
May 9, 2026
0 days
Venue
Polymarket
9 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Cerezo Ōsaka vs. V-Varen Nagasaki - More Markets
Cerezo Ōsaka vs. V-Varen Nagasaki - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0x3707ab…84de
Cerezo Ōsaka vs. V-Varen Nagasaki - More Markets: Cerezo Ōsaka (-1.5)
0x812af9…6a5b
Cerezo Ōsaka vs. V-Varen Nagasaki - More Markets: V-Varen Nagasaki (-2.5)
0x8ffae3…b6db
Cerezo Ōsaka vs. V-Varen Nagasaki - More Markets: O/U 4.5
0x5ce9d0…f879
Cerezo Ōsaka vs. V-Varen Nagasaki - More Markets: O/U 1.5
0x1acd14…301e
Cerezo Ōsaka vs. V-Varen Nagasaki - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0x1a1423…81f7
Cerezo Ōsaka vs. V-Varen Nagasaki - More Markets: Both Teams to Score
0xbf9c14…e397
Cerezo Ōsaka vs. V-Varen Nagasaki - More Markets: Cerezo Ōsaka (-2.5)
0x45b8de…87df
Cerezo Ōsaka vs. V-Varen Nagasaki - More Markets: V-Varen Nagasaki (-1.5)
0xa3d872…d28d
What moved the line
- May 7V-Varen Nagasaki (-2.5)↓16pp22→6¢ · Polymarket
- May 7Cerezo Ōsaka (-2.5)↓8pp20→12¢ · Polymarket
- May 7O/U 4.5↓6pp23→17¢ · Polymarket
- May 7V-Varen Nagasaki (-1.5)↓4pp14→10¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 3 h ago.