SimpleFunctions
Winner-take-all · 9 outcomes9 contractsPolymarketrefreshed 3 h agoCloses May 9, 2026 · 0d

Cerezo Ōsaka vs. V-Varen Nagasaki - More Markets

Leader sits at 78% across 9 bound outcomes, runner-up at 55%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.

Leader probability

78%

O/U 1.5

runner-up 55¢leader 78¢

Outcomes

9

winner-take-all

Runner-up

55¢

Both Teams to Score

Spread

23pp

contested

24h volume

$353

thin orderbook

Closes

May 9, 2026

0 days

Venue

Polymarket

9 bound

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayO/U 1.5: 73% on 2026-05-06Both Teams to Score: 57% (3 days, 3 points)Both Teams to Score: 57% on 2026-05-08O/U 2.5: 56% (3 days, 2 points)O/U 2.5: 56% on 2026-05-07
O/U 1.573¢Both Teams to Score57¢O/U 2.556¢
Top 3 candidates by current price · 3d

Bracket family

How the bracket ladder is priced.

Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.

What moved the line

  • May 7V-Varen Nagasaki (-2.5)16pp226¢ · Polymarket
  • May 7Cerezo Ōsaka (-2.5)8pp2012¢ · Polymarket
  • May 7O/U 4.56pp2317¢ · Polymarket
  • May 7V-Varen Nagasaki (-1.5)4pp1410¢ · Polymarket

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

More like this

Adjacent prediction questions.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 3 h ago.