Cerezo Ōsaka vs. V-Varen Nagasaki - More Markets: V-Varen Nagasaki (-1.5)
Leader sits at 7% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 3%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
V-Varen Nagasaki (-1.5)
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
3¢
V-Varen Nagasaki (-2.5)
Spread
4pp
contested
24h volume
$45
thin orderbook
Closes
May 9, 2026
0 days
Venue
Polymarket
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Cerezo Ōsaka vs. V-Varen Nagasaki - More Markets: V-Varen Nagasaki
Analysis
This market reflects a 32% probability that V-Varen Nagasaki will win by 1.5 goals or more against Cerezo Ōsaka in an upcoming J-League match. The probability suggests market participants favor Cerezo Ōsaka slightly, with the spread odds leaning toward a closer contest or Cerezo victory. The current level likely reflects relative team form, recent head-to-head records, and home/away status. Resolution will occur at the match conclusion, when the final goal differential becomes known. Minimal trading volume to date indicates limited liquidity and potential for price movement as the match approaches and more information emerges about team lineups, injuries, or weather conditions.
- ›Team league standing and recent performance trends (wins/losses in last 5-10 matches)
- ›Head-to-head historical records between Cerezo Ōsaka and V-Varen Nagasaki
- ›Home/away status and venue (pitch conditions, crowd support)
- ›Key player availability, confirmed injuries, or suspension status for either team
- ›Match kickoff date and weather forecast if available, which can affect team tactics and scoring patterns
What moved the line
- May 7V-Varen Nagasaki (-2.5)↓16pp22→6¢ · Polymarket
- May 7V-Varen Nagasaki (-1.5)↓4pp14→10¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (7% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 3 h ago.