CF Montréal vs. Orlando City SC
Leader sits at 50% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 27%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
CF Montréal
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
27¢
Orlando City SC
Spread
23pp
contested
24h volume
$1K
modest
Closes
May 9, 2026
0 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
CF Montréal vs. Orlando City SC
Analysis
This 25% probability indicates that Orlando City SC is viewed as a slight underdog in the upcoming match against CF Montréal, with a draw assigned nearly identical odds at 24%. The market currently prices Montreal's win implicitly at around 51%, reflecting a competitive matchup. Key drivers of this probability include recent team form, injury status, and head-to-head performance in the 2026 MLS season. The primary catalyst resolving this uncertainty will be the scheduled match kickoff, which will determine the outcome and collapse all three possibilities (Montreal win, draw, Orlando win) to certainty. Current trading volume remains modest at $11 over 24 hours, suggesting limited market conviction at these odds. The near-parity between Orlando and draw outcomes indicates meaningful uncertainty about the result.
- ›Orlando City SC's current league position and goal differential compared to CF Montréal's standing in the 2026 MLS season
- ›Recent form over the last 5-10 matches for both teams, including goals scored and conceded patterns
- ›Head-to-head results and performance metrics between these two opponents in the 2026 season to date
- ›Confirmed lineup availability and injury status for key players on both sides entering the match
- ›Home/away advantage and venue-specific performance data if the match location significantly favors one team
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 3 h ago.