Will Bernhard Langer win the Regions Tradition
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 5% across 14 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
5%
14 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$9K
14 contracts
Closes
May 24, 2026
15 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
14 clusters across 14 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Stewart Cink win the Insperity Invitational
Will Stewart Cink win the Insperity Invitational?: Stewart Cink
KXCHAMPTOUR-INI26-SCIN
Cluster 2
Will Ben Crane win the Insperity Invitational
Will Ben Crane win the Insperity Invitational?: Ben Crane
KXCHAMPTOUR-INI26-BCRA
Cluster 3
Will Thongchai Jaidee win the Insperity Invitational
Will Thongchai Jaidee win the Insperity Invitational?: Thongchai Jaidee
KXCHAMPTOUR-INI26-TJAI
Cluster 4
Will Shane Bertsch win the Insperity Invitational
Will Shane Bertsch win the Insperity Invitational?: Shane Bertsch
KXCHAMPTOUR-INI26-SBER
Cluster 5
Will Y.E. Yang win the Insperity Invitational
Will Y.E. Yang win the Insperity Invitational?: Y.E. Yang
KXCHAMPTOUR-INI26-YYAN
Cluster 6
Will Boo Weekley win the Insperity Invitational
Will Boo Weekley win the Insperity Invitational?: Boo Weekley
KXCHAMPTOUR-INI26-BWEE
Cluster 7
Will Richard Green win the Insperity Invitational
Will Richard Green win the Insperity Invitational?: Richard Green
KXCHAMPTOUR-INI26-RGRE
Cluster 8
Will Bernhard Langer win the Insperity Invitational
Will Bernhard Langer win the Insperity Invitational?: Bernhard Langer
KXCHAMPTOUR-INI26-BLAN
Cluster 9
Will Darren Clarke win the Insperity Invitational
Will Darren Clarke win the Insperity Invitational?: Darren Clarke
KXCHAMPTOUR-INI26-DCLA
Cluster 10
Will Brian Gay win the Insperity Invitational
Will Brian Gay win the Insperity Invitational?: Brian Gay
KXCHAMPTOUR-INI26-BGAY
Cluster 11
Will Michael Wright win the Insperity Invitational
Will Michael Wright win the Insperity Invitational?: Michael Wright
KXCHAMPTOUR-INI26-MWRI
Cluster 12
Will Justin Leonard win the Insperity Invitational
Will Justin Leonard win the Insperity Invitational?: Justin Leonard
KXCHAMPTOUR-INI26-JLEO
Cluster 13
Will Zach Johnson win the Insperity Invitational
Will Zach Johnson win the Insperity Invitational?: Zach Johnson
KXCHAMPTOUR-INI26-ZJOH
Cluster 14
Will Alex Cejka win the Insperity Invitational
Will Alex Cejka win the Insperity Invitational?: Alex Cejka
KXCHAMPTOUR-INI26-ACEJ
Analysis
The 24% probability indicates that market participants assess Bernhard Langer as having roughly a one-in-four chance of winning the Regions Tradition, a PGA Tour Champions event. This probability reflects expectations about Langer's competitive form relative to other senior golfers in the field. Key drivers of this assessment include Langer's recent tournament performance and consistency on the Champions Tour, as well as the strength of competing players in the tournament. The primary catalyst for updating this probability will be the actual tournament outcome when the Regions Tradition is played. Market participants are pricing in both Langer's historical track record in similar events and current conditions heading into the competition.
- ›Bernhard Langer's recent finishes and scoring averages in PGA Tour Champions events in 2026
- ›The number and caliber of other contenders entered in the specific Regions Tradition field
- ›Historical head-to-head performance data between Langer and likely competitors in senior tour events
- ›Course conditions and format specifics of the Regions Tradition venue for the 2026 edition
- ›Any recent injuries, withdrawals, or changes in playing status affecting Langer or key competitors
What moved the line
- May 7Stewart Cink↑14pp15→29¢ · Kalshi
- May 8Stewart Cink↑5pp29→34¢ · Kalshi
- May 8Zach Johnson↑5pp2→7¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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