Charlotte FC vs. FC Cincinnati
Leader sits at 45% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 30%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Charlotte FC
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
30¢
FC Cincinnati
Spread
15pp
contested
24h volume
$853
thin orderbook
Closes
May 9, 2026
0 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Charlotte FC vs. FC Cincinnati
Analysis
This probability indicates that Charlotte FC is currently favored to win an upcoming match against FC Cincinnati, with a 47% implied chance based on prediction market pricing. The relatively modest edge reflects uncertainty typical of competitive matchups between MLS teams. Key factors likely driving this assessment include recent team form, head-to-head record, home-field advantage (if applicable), and injury status of key players. The probability will shift as match day approaches and new information emerges about team preparation and player availability. The match itself will provide definitive resolution once played, making this a near-term, binary outcome.
- ›Charlotte FC's recent win-loss record and goal differential compared to FC Cincinnati's over the last 5-10 matches
- ›Home venue status and historical performance differential at each stadium
- ›Current injury or suspension status of starting players, particularly attacking and defensive key contributors
- ›Head-to-head record between the teams in the regular season and any relevant playoff history
- ›Market volume and trading activity remains at $0 over 24 hours, suggesting limited conviction or information flow updating prices
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 3 h ago.