SimpleFunctions
Winner-take-all · 8 outcomes8 contractsPolymarketrefreshed 3 h agoCloses May 9, 2026 · 0d

Chengdu Rongcheng FC vs. Henan FC - More Markets

Leader sits at 81% across 8 bound outcomes, runner-up at 59%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.

Leader probability

81%

O/U 1.5

runner-up 59¢leader 81¢

Outcomes

8

winner-take-all

Runner-up

59¢

O/U 2.5

Spread

22pp

contested

24h volume

$166

thin orderbook

Closes

May 9, 2026

0 days

Venue

Polymarket

8 bound

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayO/U 1.5: 83% (3 days, 3 points)O/U 1.5: 83% on 2026-05-08O/U 2.5: 61% (3 days, 2 points)O/U 2.5: 61% on 2026-05-07Both Teams to Score: 56% (3 days, 2 points)Both Teams to Score: 56% on 2026-05-07
O/U 1.583¢O/U 2.561¢Both Teams to Score56¢
Top 3 candidates by current price · 3d

Bracket family

How the bracket ladder is priced.

Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.

Analysis

The 51% probability indicates that market participants see both teams scoring as slightly more likely than not in this matchup between Chengdu Rongcheng FC and Henan FC. The betting activity is concentrated on spread outcomes (Henan -1.5/-2.5 and Chengdu -1.5/-2.5), with prices clustered around 28–37 cents, suggesting balanced uncertainty about which team wins and by how much. Both Teams to Score trades at 51 cents because recent performance, playing styles, or squad composition make attacking efficiency and defensive vulnerability roughly symmetrical. The market will resolve when the match concludes; the exact date and current season context determine whether defensive organization or offensive momentum dominates. Notably, there has been zero trading volume in the past 24 hours across all contracts, indicating low liquidity and limited new information flow.

  • Both Teams to Score is priced at 51¢ with no 24-hour volume, suggesting the market is static rather than actively repricing on fresh data
  • Chengdu and Henan's spread contracts are evenly distributed (33¢ and 37¢ for comparable spreads), indicating symmetric uncertainty about the winner and margin
  • The gap between Both Teams to Score (51¢) and the runner-up outcome (37¢) shows this outcome is modestly favored but not overwhelming
  • Zero trading volume across all five contracts indicates thin liquidity and reduced confidence in any single narrative
  • Historical goal-scoring rates, current squad injuries, and recent form for both clubs will be the primary determinant of whether the prediction holds at match resolution

What moved the line

  • May 7Henan FC (-1.5)6pp137¢ · Polymarket
  • May 8Henan FC (-1.5)3pp74¢ · Polymarket

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

More like this

Adjacent prediction questions.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 3 h ago.