SimpleFunctions

Bruno Fernandes in Players' Player of the Year

Bruno Fernandes is priced at 66¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 67¢ bid, 89¢ ask, 22¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 16 inside Who will win Players' Player of the Year.

Price history

66¢ current

10¢
0¢25¢50¢75¢
May 26, 2026Jun 25, 2026

Contract brief

If Bruno Fernandes wins the Professional Footballers' Association (PFA) Players' Player of the Year in the 2025-2026 season, then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

Bruno Fernandes

Rank

#1 of 16

Leader

Bruno Fernandes 67¢

Range

1¢-67¢

Family volume

$188

Identifier

KXPFAPOY-2526-BFER

Jun 25, 2026, 8:08 PM UTC · 21m ago

Implied probability

66¢
Latest venue quote
Jun 25, 2026, 8:08 PM UTC · 21m ago

Bid

67¢

Ask

89¢

Spread

22¢

24h volume

$11

Family rank

#1 of 16

16 outcomes · Who will win Players' Player of the Year

Closes

Dec 31, 2027

Family volume

$188

Orderbook snapshot

67 / 89¢

Kalshi
22¢ spread
BidSize
67¢200
66¢179
65¢5.0K
32¢15
31¢366
AskSize
89¢826
93¢6
97¢200
98¢1.1K
99¢52

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If Bruno Fernandes wins the Professional Footballers' Association (PFA) Players' Player of the Year in the 2025-2026 season, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Dec 31, 2027

Identifier

KXPFAPOY-2526-BFER

SF Signal
SF Index
66.91
Regime
neutral

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

32.5%

IY (No)

133.8%

Adj IY

67%

CRI

2

Overround

-0.0%

Regime

neutral

Score

0.409

Observability

medium

Event type

sports

Full indicator table

32.5%
133.8%
Adj IY
67%
2
Overround
-0.0%

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.