Will Divya Deshmukh win the 2026 Norway Chess Women

30-day trend

Analysis

This probability reflects the estimated likelihood that Indian chess player Divya Deshmukh will win the 2026 Norway Chess Women's tournament. The 23% aggregate probability suggests she is considered a competitive but not favored contender. The 31-percentage-point gap between Polymarket (51%) and Kalshi (20%) indicates meaningful disagreement about her chances, possibly reflecting different participant expertise or information access. Key factors affecting this probability include Deshmukh's recent tournament performance, the strength of competing players, and rating-based predictive models. The Norway Chess tournament itself will provide definitive resolution once completed. Movements in this probability would likely reflect updates on participant health, rating changes, or head-to-head results before the event.

• ›Divya Deshmukh's current world rating rank and recent tournament results relative to other female competitors in the field
• ›The composition and strength of other participants confirmed for the 2026 Norway Chess Women's event
• ›Historical performance patterns of top-seeded players at Norway Chess, including win rates for favorites versus mid-tier competitors
• ›The magnitude of disagreement between Polymarket and Kalshi traders, suggesting either information asymmetry or different weighting of available data
• ›Whether Deshmukh has participated in or won similar high-level women's chess tournaments in the past 12-18 months

What moved the line

• May 8Bibisara Assaubayeva↑10pp7→17¢ · Kalshi
• May 6Divya Deshmukh↑8pp1→9¢ · Kalshi
• May 7Magnus Carlsen↓6pp62→56¢ · Kalshi
• May 8Magnus Carlsen↑3pp56→59¢ · Kalshi
• May 6Praggnanandhaa Rameshbabu↓3pp6→3¢ · Kalshi

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds