Chicago Fire FC vs. FC Cincinnati - More Markets
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 44% across 7 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
44%
7 contracts
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$906
7 contracts
Closes
May 6, 2026
0 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
7 clusters across 7 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 22% of their title tokens — “Kawasaki Frontale vs. Tōkyō Verdy - More Markets: Tōkyō Verdy” vs “Beijing Guoan FC vs. Dalian Yingbo FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Kawasaki Frontale vs. Tōkyō Verdy - More Markets: Tōkyō Verdy
Kawasaki Frontale vs. Tōkyō Verdy - More Markets: Tōkyō Verdy (-1.5)
0x2ae2eb…68c8
Cluster 2
Beijing Guoan FC vs. Dalian Yingbo FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
Beijing Guoan FC vs. Dalian Yingbo FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0xd0a2f0…02d4
Cluster 3
Yunnan Yukun FC vs. Zhejiang Zhiye FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
Yunnan Yukun FC vs. Zhejiang Zhiye FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0xc6f8d0…d7bf
Cluster 4
Wuhan San Zhen FC vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
Wuhan San Zhen FC vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0x4612ca…3182
Cluster 5
Shanghai Haigang FC vs. Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
Shanghai Haigang FC vs. Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0x64562d…92f6
Cluster 6
Vanraure Hachinohe FC vs. Shōnan Bellmāre - More Markets: O/U 3.5
Vanraure Hachinohe FC vs. Shōnan Bellmāre - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0xf8c905…86be
Cluster 7
Punjab FC vs. Chennaiyin FC - More Markets: Punjab FC
Punjab FC vs. Chennaiyin FC - More Markets: Punjab FC (-1.5)
0xea81e1…2c80
Analysis
This 44% probability represents the aggregate expectation across prediction markets that Chicago Fire FC will defeat FC Cincinnati in their upcoming match. The midpoint reflects balanced uncertainty between two competitive MLS teams. The current level suggests markets view this as a closely contested game with neither side commanding strong favorites status. Key drivers of movement would include recent team form, injury reports for key players, head-to-head records, and home/away advantage considerations. The match result will definitively resolve this uncertainty once the game concludes, making pre-match team news and lineup confirmations the primary catalysts that could shift expectations in either direction before kickoff.
- ›Recent win-loss records and goal differential for both teams over their last 5-10 matches
- ›Availability status of star players or key position players due to injury or suspension for either squad
- ›Historical head-to-head match results between Chicago Fire and FC Cincinnati
- ›Home field advantage and venue-specific performance data for Chicago Fire at their stadium
- ›Current league standings and playoff positioning implications that might affect team motivation
What moved the line
- May 6Tōkyō Verdy (-1.5)↓20pp26→6¢ · Polymarket
- May 6O/U 3.5↓20pp40→20¢ · Polymarket
- May 6O/U 2.5↑9pp62→71¢ · Polymarket
- May 6Punjab FC (-1.5)↓3pp37→34¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 1 d ago.