China x Japan military clash before 2027
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 10% across 1 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
10%
1 contract
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$2K
1 contracts
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
236 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
China x Japan military clash before 2027
China x Japan military clash before 2027?
0xa466e1…2b5e
Analysis
This probability represents the estimated likelihood of armed conflict between China and Japan before the end of 2026. The 22% aggregate masks a significant divergence: Kalshi traders price it at 40% while Polymarket traders assess it at 13%, suggesting disagreement about the baseline risk of escalation over disputed territories or maritime incidents. The probability could shift based on military posturing around contested areas, diplomatic statements from Beijing or Tokyo, or incidents involving disputed islands. Near-term catalyst events include scheduled military exercises, changes in U.S. security commitments to Japan, or any accidents or provocative actions in disputed waters that could trigger uncontrolled escalation.
- ›Current military deployment patterns and frequency of intercepts or close encounters in the East China Sea and around the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands
- ›Official statements or policy shifts from Chinese, Japanese, or U.S. government officials regarding military readiness or red lines in the region
- ›Historical precedent shows most incidents remain contained; the question is whether structural tensions have increased the probability of an accident becoming conflict
- ›Scheduled military exercises or joint operations by Japan and allied forces that could provoke Chinese response or miscalculation
- ›Economic interdependence and trade relationships between China and Japan—deeper ties typically correlate with conflict avoidance
What moved the line
- May 7China x Japan military clash before 2027?↓4pp15→11¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in china
- Will Wenyi Ding lead at the end of Round 1 in the Volvo China Openlast 3% · 0d
- Beijing Guoan FC vs. Dalian Yingbo FC - More Marketslast 84% · 2d
- Beijing Guoan FC vs. Dalian Yingbo FClast 60% · 2d
- Yunnan Yukun FC vs. Beijing Guoan FC - More Marketslast 38% · 2d
- Beijing Guoan FC vs. Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC - More Marketslast 84% · 2d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (10% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In china
Related reading
Trump China Visit Locked In at 95% Probability: Markets Expect Mid-May Summit
Donald Trump visiting China by May 15 is priced at 91¢ (+1¢) and by May 31 at 95¢ (+2¢) — extremely high conviction. This would be the most consequential US-China diplomatic engagement since Xi's reelection. Markets are pricing this as a near-certainty.
Trump China Visit May 15 Surges +13¢ — Diplomatic Breakthrough Priced
The Trump-China May 15 visit market jumped +13¢ to 72¢ today, signaling traders believe a diplomatic trip is imminent. Combined with the June 30 market at 83¢, prediction markets are pricing a near-certain Trump visit to China within 7 weeks. This has major implications for tariff de-escalation trades.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 5 min ago.