Chinese Super League

30-day trend

Analysis

This probability reflects the estimated likelihood that a specific team wins the 2026 Chinese Super League championship, based on aggregated predictions from 16 different betting contracts. The current 56% leader suggests moderate confidence in one team's chances, though the runner-up at 48% indicates substantial uncertainty remains. Key drivers of this probability include each team's squad composition, recent performance trends, and managerial changes heading into the season. The league typically runs from March through November, with outcomes depending on injuries, transfers, and mid-season form fluctuations that cannot be predicted with certainty. Resolution occurs when the season concludes and a champion is officially crowned, which eliminates all remaining uncertainty about the final standings and playoff results.

• ›Current top three contenders (Henan, Wuhan Three Towns, Qingdao Hainiu) trade within a narrow 44–47¢ range on Polymarket, indicating prediction markets view them as near-equally competitive
• ›The 56% leading contract price exceeds Polymarket's Henan price (47¢), suggesting the market leader may be a team not explicitly listed in top contracts or reflects recent team news not yet reflected across all venues
• ›Zero 24-hour trading volume on visible Chinese Super League contracts indicates minimal recent price movement and lower market liquidity than similar sports betting products
• ›The 8-percentage-point gap between the leader (56%) and runner-up (48%) is narrower than typical winner-take-all markets, reflecting genuine competitive balance among final contenders
• ›Seasonal timing (current date May 3) places the league well into its campaign, meaning approximately half the season remains with significant variance still possible in standings

What moved the line

• May 6Winner: Chengdu Rongcheng↓7pp56→49¢ · Polymarket
• May 6Winner: Qingdao West Coast↑4pp44→48¢ · Polymarket
• May 6Winner: Chongqing Tonglianglong↑3pp45→48¢ · Polymarket
• May 6Winner: Wuhan Three Towns↑3pp45→48¢ · Polymarket
• May 3Winner: Qingdao Hainiu↑3pp43→46¢ · Polymarket

Recently closed in general

• What will Donald Trump say during CNBClast 95% · 1d
• Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms: D Senate, R Houselast 3% · 1d
• Will any member of Trump's Cabinet leave before Aug 2026last 85% · 1d
• What will any participating candidate say during South Carolina GOP gubernatorial debatenolast 7% · 1d
• FC Gifu vs. Matsumoto Yamaga FC - More Marketslast 74% · 2d

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds