Club Alianza Lima vs. CD Moquegua - More Markets
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 23% across 19 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
23%
19 contracts
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$1K
19 contracts
Closes
May 7, 2026
0 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
3 clusters across 19 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 27% of their title tokens — “Club Alianza Atlético vs. América de Cali - More Markets” vs “CD Tolima vs. Club Nacional de Football - More Markets”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Club Alianza Atlético vs. América de Cali - More Markets
Club Alianza Atlético vs. América de Cali - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0xf11ea2…4b49
Club Alianza Atlético vs. América de Cali - More Markets: América de Cali (-2.5)
0x29a631…e20d
Club Alianza Atlético vs. América de Cali - More Markets: Both Teams to Score
0xfab9ac…a061
Club Alianza Atlético vs. América de Cali - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0x80dc4f…a83e
Club Alianza Atlético vs. América de Cali - More Markets: América de Cali (-1.5)
0x96b339…c2ac
Club Alianza Atlético vs. América de Cali - More Markets: Club Alianza Atlético (-2.5)
0xef168a…e777
Club Alianza Atlético vs. América de Cali - More Markets: O/U 4.5
0x5d229c…d749
Club Alianza Atlético vs. América de Cali - More Markets: Club Alianza Atlético (-1.5)
0x3f6143…9432
Club Alianza Atlético vs. América de Cali - More Markets: O/U 1.5
0x823331…d919
Cluster 2
CD Tolima vs. Club Nacional de Football - More Markets
CD Tolima vs. Club Nacional de Football - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0x6495f7…7b3b
CD Tolima vs. Club Nacional de Football - More Markets: O/U 1.5
0xfdd357…99cb
CD Tolima vs. Club Nacional de Football - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0xdd5582…a4ed
CD Tolima vs. Club Nacional de Football - More Markets: CD Tolima (-2.5)
0xe39b53…e126
CD Tolima vs. Club Nacional de Football - More Markets: Both Teams to Score
0xcc83d1…c4a4
CD Tolima vs. Club Nacional de Football - More Markets: O/U 4.5
0xbb6532…9186
CD Tolima vs. Club Nacional de Football - More Markets: Club Nacional de Football (-1.5)
0xa229d8…a31e
CD Tolima vs. Club Nacional de Football - More Markets: Club Nacional de Football (-2.5)
0xbb148b…bc47
CD Tolima vs. Club Nacional de Football - More Markets: CD Tolima (-1.5)
0x404209…0d40
Cluster 3
National Bank of Egypt Club vs. Ismaily SC - More Markets: O/U 4.5
National Bank of Egypt Club vs. Ismaily SC - More Markets: O/U 4.5
0xfa839b…5bad
Analysis
This probability reflects a 25% chance that Club Alianza Lima vs. CD Moquegua generates additional betting markets beyond those currently available. The assessment rests on the liquidity and interest level typically generated by Peruvian football matches at this tier, with higher probabilities favoring matches between clubs with larger fan bases or higher competitive standing. The resolution depends on whether sportsbooks determine sufficient market demand warrants expanded offerings. Key drivers include the teams' current league position, historical betting volume for similar matchups, and timing relative to the Peruvian football season calendar. Most Peruvian domestic matches generate standard markets (moneyline, total goals), but additional markets like quarter-based betting or player props appear less frequently for lower-division or mid-table contests. The upcoming match date would represent the primary catalyst—if significant pre-game betting activity materializes, sportsbooks may respond by adding more market options.
- ›Current team standings and league position in Peru's professional football hierarchy affect market demand
- ›Historical betting volume and liquidity patterns for similar Peruvian domestic matchups
- ›Sportsbook decision thresholds for adding markets correlate with pre-game bet placement activity and customer interest
- ›Match scheduling within the Peruvian football calendar and proximity to major fixtures that might compete for betting attention
- ›Whether either club has significant recent performance swings or notable injury situations that drive bettor engagement
What moved the line
- May 7América de Cali (-2.5)↑29pp5→34¢ · Polymarket
- May 6O/U 4.5↓27pp34→7¢ · Polymarket
- May 7CD Tolima (-2.5)↑20pp6→26¢ · Polymarket
- May 7América de Cali (-1.5)↑20pp18→38¢ · Polymarket
- May 6Club Alianza Atlético (-2.5)↓19pp23→4¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 21 h ago.