Club Aurora vs. Club Guabirá - More Markets
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 26% across 14 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
26%
14 contracts
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$567
14 contracts
Closes
May 7, 2026
0 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 14 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 30% of their title tokens — “CD Tolima vs. Club Nacional de Football - More Markets” vs “National Bank of Egypt Club vs. Ismaily SC - More Markets”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
CD Tolima vs. Club Nacional de Football - More Markets
CD Tolima vs. Club Nacional de Football - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0x6495f7…7b3b
CD Tolima vs. Club Nacional de Football - More Markets: O/U 1.5
0xfdd357…99cb
CD Tolima vs. Club Nacional de Football - More Markets: CD Tolima (-2.5)
0xe39b53…e126
CD Tolima vs. Club Nacional de Football - More Markets: Both Teams to Score
0xcc83d1…c4a4
CD Tolima vs. Club Nacional de Football - More Markets: Club Nacional de Football (-1.5)
0xa229d8…a31e
CD Tolima vs. Club Nacional de Football - More Markets: Club Nacional de Football (-2.5)
0xbb148b…bc47
CD Tolima vs. Club Nacional de Football - More Markets: CD Tolima (-1.5)
0x404209…0d40
Cluster 2
National Bank of Egypt Club vs. Ismaily SC - More Markets
National Bank of Egypt Club vs. Ismaily SC - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0x3c0f5f…5d9f
National Bank of Egypt Club vs. Ismaily SC - More Markets: National Bank of Egypt Club (-1.5)
0x21ed5a…5e0d
National Bank of Egypt Club vs. Ismaily SC - More Markets: O/U 1.5
0x491b92…d453
National Bank of Egypt Club vs. Ismaily SC - More Markets: Ismaily SC (-1.5)
0xaa1d2c…6cde
National Bank of Egypt Club vs. Ismaily SC - More Markets: National Bank of Egypt Club (-2.5)
0x5d63d2…892c
National Bank of Egypt Club vs. Ismaily SC - More Markets: O/U 4.5
0xfa839b…5bad
National Bank of Egypt Club vs. Ismaily SC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0x3e4cd1…c9a0
What moved the line
- May 6Ismaily SC (-1.5)↓32pp37→5¢ · Polymarket
- May 6National Bank of Egypt Club (-2.5)↓30pp37→7¢ · Polymarket
- May 6O/U 4.5↓27pp34→7¢ · Polymarket
- May 7CD Tolima (-2.5)↑20pp6→26¢ · Polymarket
- May 6O/U 3.5↓20pp39→19¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 21 h ago.