Club Bolívar vs. CD Real Tomayapo - More Markets: CD Real Tomayapo (-1.5)
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 29% across 10 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
29%
10 contracts
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$535
10 contracts
Closes
May 7, 2026
0 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 10 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 30% of their title tokens — “CD Tolima vs. Club Nacional de Football - More Markets” vs “National Bank of Egypt Club vs. Ismaily SC - More Markets”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
CD Tolima vs. Club Nacional de Football - More Markets
CD Tolima vs. Club Nacional de Football - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0x6495f7…7b3b
CD Tolima vs. Club Nacional de Football - More Markets: O/U 1.5
0xfdd357…99cb
CD Tolima vs. Club Nacional de Football - More Markets: CD Tolima (-2.5)
0xe39b53…e126
CD Tolima vs. Club Nacional de Football - More Markets: Both Teams to Score
0xcc83d1…c4a4
CD Tolima vs. Club Nacional de Football - More Markets: Club Nacional de Football (-2.5)
0xbb148b…bc47
CD Tolima vs. Club Nacional de Football - More Markets: CD Tolima (-1.5)
0x404209…0d40
Cluster 2
National Bank of Egypt Club vs. Ismaily SC - More Markets
National Bank of Egypt Club vs. Ismaily SC - More Markets: National Bank of Egypt Club (-1.5)
0x21ed5a…5e0d
National Bank of Egypt Club vs. Ismaily SC - More Markets: O/U 1.5
0x491b92…d453
National Bank of Egypt Club vs. Ismaily SC - More Markets: National Bank of Egypt Club (-2.5)
0x5d63d2…892c
National Bank of Egypt Club vs. Ismaily SC - More Markets: O/U 4.5
0xfa839b…5bad
Analysis
This probability reflects the market's assessment that CD Real Tomayapo will win by at least 2 goals against Club Bolívar. At 29%, the market implies roughly a 1-in-3.4 chance of this outcome. The probability is shaped primarily by recent team form and head-to-head records between these Bolivian league competitors. Club Bolívar's historical advantage and current standing are likely weighing against Tomayapo's prospects for a decisive victory. The match result itself will provide complete resolution, as the final scoreline will definitively settle whether Tomayapo achieves a margin of 2+ goals. Changes to this probability before kickoff would typically reflect lineup news, injury updates, or late-breaking information about either team's readiness.
- ›Club Bolívar's position and win rate in the current Bolivian league season relative to Tomayapo's recent form
- ›Historical head-to-head scoring patterns between these teams, particularly instances of 2+ goal margins
- ›Lineup availability and injury status for key attacking or defensive players on either squad
- ›Home or away advantage factor and venue record for CD Real Tomayapo specifically in decisive-margin matches
- ›Recent goal differential trends for both teams in their last 5-10 competitive matches
What moved the line
- May 6National Bank of Egypt Club (-2.5)↓30pp37→7¢ · Polymarket
- May 6O/U 4.5↓27pp34→7¢ · Polymarket
- May 7CD Tolima (-2.5)↑20pp6→26¢ · Polymarket
- May 7O/U 1.5↓19pp65→46¢ · Polymarket
- May 6CD Tolima (-2.5)↓17pp23→6¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 21 h ago.