Club Guabirá vs. GV CD San José
Leader sits at 56% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 22%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Club Guabirá
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
22¢
Draw (Club Guabirá vs. GV CD
Spread
34pp
contested
24h volume
$9
thin orderbook
Closes
May 9, 2026
0 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Club Guabirá vs. GV CD San José
Analysis
This probability reflects market expectations that Club Guabirá will win an upcoming match against GV CD San José, with a 50% chance assigned to a Guabirá victory, 35% to a draw, and the remainder to a San José win. The market pricing suggests relatively balanced competitive positioning between the teams, though Guabirá holds a slight edge. Key drivers of the current level likely include recent form, head-to-head history, home-field advantage if applicable, and squad composition or injury status. The primary catalyst for resolving this uncertainty will be the match itself; the outcome will determine which outcome contract settles at full value. Trading volume has been zero in the past 24 hours, suggesting limited recent market activity or confidence reassessment. The gap between the leading outcome (50%) and the draw probability (35%) indicates some market conviction toward a decisive result rather than a stalemate.
- ›Club Guabirá is priced at 50%, indicating marginal favorite status rather than strong consensus; San José's implied win probability is approximately 15% based on remaining contract value
- ›Draw probability of 35% reflects meaningful expectation of a stalemate outcome, competing with the outright win scenarios
- ›Zero trading volume in the past 24 hours suggests stable pricing or reduced market interest rather than active repricing
- ›The match date and venue (home or away for each team) would directly influence the split between Guabirá favorites and draw probability
- ›Recent league performance, goal differential, and defensive records of both teams would explain whether the 50-35 split reflects actual quality gap or market overconfidence in either team
What moved the line
- May 7Draw (Club Guabirá vs. GV CD San José)↓7pp32→25¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 3 h ago.