Club Independiente Petrolero vs. Club Always Ready - More Markets: O/U 2.5
Leader sits at 82% across 9 bound outcomes, runner-up at 66%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
O/U 1.5
Outcomes
9
winner-take-all
Runner-up
66¢
O/U 2.5
Spread
16pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
May 10, 2026
1 days
Venue
Polymarket
9 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Club Independiente Petrolero vs. Club Always Ready - More Markets
Club Independiente Petrolero vs. Club Always Ready - More Markets: Club Independiente Petrolero (-2.5)
0x938082…499c
Club Independiente Petrolero vs. Club Always Ready - More Markets: Club Always Ready (-1.5)
0xebaa25…3e3a
Club Independiente Petrolero vs. Club Always Ready - More Markets: Club Independiente Petrolero (-1.5)
0x4651e3…9969
Club Independiente Petrolero vs. Club Always Ready - More Markets: Both Teams to Score
0x210f5c…02f1
Club Independiente Petrolero vs. Club Always Ready - More Markets: O/U 4.5
0x7221a0…1507
Club Independiente Petrolero vs. Club Always Ready - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0x039b1f…727d
Club Independiente Petrolero vs. Club Always Ready - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0x5446f9…86b5
Club Independiente Petrolero vs. Club Always Ready - More Markets: O/U 1.5
0x4e5d8c…95a1
Club Independiente Petrolero vs. Club Always Ready - More Markets: Club Always Ready (-2.5)
0xc7b9cb…323e
Analysis
This market reflects a 66% probability that the match between Club Independiente Petrolero and Club Always Ready will produce more than 2.5 goals. The elevated probability suggests traders expect higher-scoring output, likely driven by the attacking capabilities of one or both teams and their defensive vulnerabilities. Related markets show lower confidence in even higher goal totals (36% for over 3.5) and mixed expectations around both teams scoring (51%). The match resolution will depend on team form, defensive organization, and actual goal-scoring efficiency. The key uncertainty is whether either side can maintain attacking pressure while defending effectively.
- ›Club Independiente Petrolero's recent goal-scoring rate and conversion efficiency compared to Club Always Ready's defensive record
- ›Club Always Ready's ability to score away from home or press offensively, which determines whether the match stays low-scoring or breaks open
- ›The gap between O/U 1.5 (65% market price) and O/U 2.5 (52% price) shows declining confidence above 2 goals, suggesting moderate rather than high-scoring expectations
- ›Historical head-to-head scoring patterns and whether recent matches between these teams trended toward open, attacking play or defensive stalemates
- ›Team lineup availability and whether key offensive or defensive personnel are unavailable, which directly impacts goal probability
What moved the line
- May 7Club Independiente Petrolero (-1.5)↓19pp33→14¢ · Polymarket
- May 7O/U 1.5↑14pp67→81¢ · Polymarket
- May 7Club Independiente Petrolero (-2.5)↓10pp22→12¢ · Polymarket
- May 7O/U 2.5↑9pp58→67¢ · Polymarket
- May 7Club Always Ready (-2.5)↓5pp29→24¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 5 min ago.