CO-08 Democratic Primary Winner
Leader sits at 81% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 19%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Manny Rutinel
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
19¢
Shannon Bird
Spread
62pp
dominant leader
24h volume
$45
thin orderbook
Closes
Jun 30, 2026
52 days
Venue
Polymarket
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
CO-08 Democratic Primary Winner
Analysis
This probability indicates the likelihood that one Democratic candidate will win the CO-08 House primary election. The current 49% level reflects uncertainty in a competitive race with multiple viable contenders. Primary outcomes typically hinge on candidate name recognition, grassroots organization, fundraising capacity, and voter turnout patterns in the district. The primary election date will definitively resolve this market, with the winner determined by vote totals. Key factors include whether the frontrunner maintains momentum through election day, how effectively competing candidates consolidate support, whether late-breaking endorsements shift voter preferences, and actual voter turnout among Democratic primary participants in the district.
- ›Frontrunner's cash-on-hand and spending pace relative to principal competitors
- ›Endorsements from district-level and state party figures, particularly in the weeks before voting
- ›Early voting patterns and internal polling data if publicly released by campaigns or media
- ›Whether competing candidates consolidate voters or remain fragmented across multiple candidates
- ›Voter turnout rate in the Democratic primary compared to historical baseline
What moved the line
- May 2Manny Rutinel↓8pp88→80¢ · Polymarket
- May 2Shannon Bird↑5pp13→18¢ · Polymarket
- May 6Shannon Bird↑3pp18→21¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in election 2026
- Will a reconciliation bill passed the Senate before May 20, 2026last 94% · 1d
- Will John Fetterman leave the Democratic party before Jun 1, 2026last 16% · 1d
- Will the Democratic National Committee release a comprehensive post-election report of the 2024 election before Aug 1, 2026last 67% · 1d
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms: D Senate, R Houselast 3% · 1d
- What will any participating candidate say during California Governor Debatenolast 55% · 1d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (81% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In election 2026
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 3 min ago.