Will Mike Brown be out before Jul 1, 2026
Leader sits at 61% across 4 bound outcomes, runner-up at 55%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Out before Oct 25, 2027
Outcomes
4
winner-take-all
Runner-up
55¢
Out before Jul 1, 2027
Spread
6pp
contested
24h volume
$256
thin orderbook
Closes
Oct 25, 2027
534 days
Venue
Kalshi
4 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Mike Brown be out before
Will Mike Brown be out before Oct 25, 2026?: Out before Oct 25, 2026
KXCOACHOUTNBADATE-27MBRO-26OCT25
Will Mike Brown be out before Oct 25, 2027?: Out before Oct 25, 2027
KXCOACHOUTNBADATE-27MBRO-27OCT25
Will Mike Brown be out before Jul 1, 2027?: Out before Jul 1, 2027
KXCOACHOUTNBADATE-27MBRO-27JUL01
Will Mike Brown be out before Jul 1, 2026?: Out before Jul 1, 2026
KXCOACHOUTNBADATE-27MBRO-26JUL01
Analysis
This market estimates a 65% probability that Mike Brown will no longer be an NBA coach before July 1, 2026—roughly two months away. The probability reflects uncertainty about whether Brown faces termination, resignation, or reassignment before that date. Key drivers include his current team's performance trajectory, front office stability, and typical timing of NBA coaching changes, which often occur in the off-season (June-July) rather than mid-season. The main resolution catalyst is the NBA off-season hiring cycle, which typically accelerates in June when teams make formal coaching decisions. Markets of this type also depend on whether Brown is currently under contract and facing performance pressure, or whether organizational changes might trigger earlier moves. The 65% level suggests meaningful doubt—substantial probability he remains in his position through June.
- ›Current team record, playoff seeding, and recent performance trends as of early May 2026
- ›Mike Brown's contract status, remaining guaranteed salary, and reported job security statements from team ownership or front office
- ›Historical timing data: NBA coaching changes overwhelmingly occur in June-July; mid-season departures are rare except for cause
- ›Any reported trade negotiations, front office turnover, or ownership changes at Brown's current organization
- ›Comparison to market pricing for other NBA coaches facing similar uncertainty, which may reveal whether 65% reflects consensus or outlier sentiment
What moved the line
- May 2Out before Oct 25, 2027↓69pp71→2¢ · Kalshi
- May 6Out before Oct 25, 2027↑59pp2→61¢ · Kalshi
- May 2Out before Oct 25, 2026↓30pp42→12¢ · Kalshi
- May 2Out before Jul 1, 2026↓17pp25→8¢ · Kalshi
- May 6Out before Jul 1, 2027↓11pp65→54¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in general
- What will Donald Trump say during CNBClast 95% · 1d
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms: D Senate, R Houselast 3% · 1d
- Will any member of Trump's Cabinet leave before Aug 2026last 85% · 1d
- What will any participating candidate say during South Carolina GOP gubernatorial debatenolast 7% · 1d
- FC Gifu vs. Matsumoto Yamaga FC - More Marketslast 74% · 2d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 4 min ago.