Colombia vs. DR Congo
Leader sits at 65% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 20%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Colombia
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
20¢
Draw (Colombia vs. DR Congo)
Spread
45pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Jun 24, 2026
46 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Colombia vs. DR Congo
Analysis
This 60% probability reflects market expectation that Colombia will win in a matchup against DR Congo. The current probability sits notably above a coin flip, suggesting traders view Colombia as a clear favorite in this contest. Market liquidity is heavily concentrated elsewhere—Portugal vs. DR Congo contracts show significantly higher trading volume ($378 in 24 hours) compared to the Colombia match itself, indicating this particular contract has received less analytical attention and price discovery. The probability could shift upward if new information suggests Colombia's competitive advantage, or downward if DR Congo demonstrates unexpected strength or if bettors reassess team composition, form, or tactical matchups. Resolution depends on the match outcome when it occurs, making the timing and confirmed participation of both teams critical factors in whether this market remains active or settles.
- ›Trading volume for this specific contract is minimal, suggesting the 60% price may not reflect deep market consensus compared to the Portugal vs. DR Congo contracts that show $378 in 24-hour volume
- ›The runner-up outcome (20%) and draw option (20%) together represent 40%, indicating meaningful uncertainty about whether Colombia will actually win despite holding the 60% lead
- ›Portugal's 76¢ implied probability in a separate contract with much higher volume may reflect stronger team confidence overall, but direct Colombia strength data is limited in current contract volumes
- ›The 40% average price on Polymarket for Colombia vs. DR Congo contracts suggests internal disagreement or lower liquidity creating divergence from the 60% leader price shown here
- ›No scheduled match date or tournament framework is evident from the contract names, creating ambiguity about when resolution occurs and whether both teams will actually participate as expected
What moved the line
- May 6Colombia↑3pp60→63¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 3 min ago.