Colombia vs. Portugal
Leader sits at 45% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 35%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Portugal
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
35¢
Colombia
Spread
10pp
contested
24h volume
$56
thin orderbook
Closes
Jun 27, 2026
49 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Colombia vs. Portugal
Analysis
Colombia is currently priced at 42% to win against Portugal in what appears to be an upcoming match. This probability reflects Portugal's recent form and higher betting activity on Polymarket—where Portugal reached 76¢ against DR Congo—suggesting market confidence in the European side. The pricing sits between competitive and favoring Portugal (32% runner-up), indicating uncertainty about match outcomes. Key factors moving this probability would include team lineups, recent performance records, head-to-head history, and the specific tournament context. The match itself will resolve this market once played; bettors are currently positioning based on pre-game conditions and available information about both teams' current strength.
- ›Portugal's Polymarket contracts show significantly higher trading volume ($378 24h) and higher odds (76¢) against comparable opposition, suggesting stronger market conviction in Portuguese strength
- ›Colombia's Kalshi price stands at 20¢ versus Portugal's 39¢ in the same market, representing a 19-point spread that contradicts the 42% headline probability, indicating potential pricing inconsistency across venues
- ›The 42% Colombia probability ranks third behind Portugal (implied ~50%+ when accounting for the second-place runner at 32%), suggesting the market views Colombia as the underdog despite the relatively close headline number
- ›Trading volumes are heavily concentrated on Portugal-related contracts ($378-$383) versus Colombia contracts ($1-$2), indicating asymmetric market depth and potentially less refined pricing for Colombian outcomes
- ›No scheduled date is explicitly provided in the contract data, leaving the match timing uncertain and preventing calculation of days-to-resolution for assessing information decay
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 4 min ago.