Will Iván Cepeda Castro finish 2nd in the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 32% across 3 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
32%
3 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$0
3 contracts
Closes
May 31, 2027
387 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
3 clusters across 3 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Iván Cepeda Castro finish 2nd in the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election
Cluster 2
Will Paloma Valencia finish 2nd in the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election
Cluster 3
Will Abelardo de la Espriella finish 2nd in the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election
Analysis
This market assesses whether Iván Cepeda Castro, a Colombian left-wing senator and former FARC negotiator, will finish in second place in the first round of Colombia's 2026 presidential election scheduled for May 29, 2026. The 37% aggregate probability reflects significant disagreement between venues: Kalshi traders price it at 34% while Polymarket traders at 67%, a 33 percentage-point gap suggesting uncertainty about either Cepeda's viability as a second-place finisher or broader Colombian electoral dynamics. Movement in this market depends on polling trends showing whether Cepeda maintains support among leftist voters and whether other candidates consolidate votes in crowded primary conditions. The May 29 election will definitively resolve this contract, making pre-election polling releases and campaign developments the primary information channels affecting probability shifts before that date.
- ›Recent Colombian polling position of Cepeda relative to other candidates in the candidate field, particularly among left-wing and centrist voters
- ›Total number of viable candidates entering the first round and their relative vote-share forecasts, which affects threshold for finishing second
- ›Voter turnout expectations and regional voting patterns that could concentrate or disperse Cepeda's support base
- ›Significant divergence between Kalshi (34%) and Polymarket (67%) suggests either data asymmetry or different trader composition interpreting identical election information
- ›Polling volatility and changes in candidate viability between now and May 29, 2026 election date
What moved the line
- May 2Paloma Valencia↑11pp25→36¢ · Kalshi
- May 6Abelardo de la Espriella↑9pp49→58¢ · Kalshi
- May 3Iván Cepeda Castro↓4pp6→2¢ · Kalshi
- May 7Iván Cepeda Castro↑4pp2→6¢ · Kalshi
- May 6Paloma Valencia↓4pp36→32¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 3 min ago.