Copa Libertadores

30-day trend

Analysis

The 48% probability represents the market's current assessment that one specific team (tracked by contract ID) will win the 2026 Copa Libertadores tournament. The cluster of individual team contracts priced between 45-47 cents suggests the field is fragmented among roughly 6-8 viable contenders, with no dominant favorite emerging. The probability level reflects uncertainty about both the tournament's competitive balance and the strength of top clubs' current form heading into the competition. Factors likely driving this mid-range assessment include the recent performance records of traditional powerhouses like Flamengo and regional challengers, squad depth and recent transfers, and historical Copa Libertadores outcomes. The key catalyst for movement would be official tournament seeding, playoff results if applicable, or major roster news affecting top contenders in the coming weeks.

• ›Individual team contracts (Flamengo, Independiente Medellín, Cerro Porteño, etc.) are clustered within 2 cents of each other, indicating no clear consensus favorite rather than a strong consensus prediction
• ›Zero 24-hour trading volume across all listed contracts suggests minimal recent market activity and potential liquidity constraints
• ›The leading contract at 48% and runner-up at 47% are separated by only 1 percentage point, indicating statistical noise or a genuinely tight race among top contenders
• ›Tournament format, scheduling, and any playoff structure details would directly influence perceived advantage for teams with specific strengths (e.g., altitude, travel distance)
• ›Recent domestic league performance and squad stability of the six tracked teams in the 2-3 months prior to Copa Libertadores kickoff would be concrete indicators of form

What moved the line

• May 6Winner: Always Ready↓25pp46→21¢ · Polymarket
• May 6Winner: Lanús↓25pp47→22¢ · Polymarket
• May 8Winner: Rosario Central↑18pp23→41¢ · Polymarket
• May 6Winner: Peñarol↓18pp42→24¢ · Polymarket
• May 7Winner: Always Ready↑18pp21→39¢ · Polymarket

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds