Coppa Italia
Leader sits at 72% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 28%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Winner: Inter
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
28¢
Winner: Lazio
Spread
44pp
contested
24h volume
$74
thin orderbook
Closes
May 27, 2026
18 days
Venue
Polymarket
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Coppa Italia: Winner
Coppa Italia: Winner: Inter
0x05faaa…8b05
Coppa Italia: Winner: Lazio
0x5f3b48…d871
Analysis
This 46% probability represents the combined market assessment that Inter Milan will win the 2026 Coppa Italia. The estimate reflects Inter's strong domestic performance and squad depth, balanced against competition from other Italian clubs like Lazio. A 9-percentage-point gap exists between venues, with Polymarket pricing Inter's chances at 50% versus Kalshi at 41%, suggesting some disagreement about Inter's relative strength. The probability would shift based on team injuries, form changes, or knockout-stage matchups as the tournament progresses. The Coppa Italia final, typically held in May, represents the key resolution point for this market, though earlier eliminations would also clarify outcomes.
- ›Inter has won the Coppa Italia in 4 of the last 8 seasons (2019-20, 2021-22, 2023-24, 2024-25), indicating consistency among Italian competitors
- ›Low 24-hour trading volume on most contracts ($0-3 across venues) reflects limited recent activity and potentially wide bid-ask spreads
- ›Lazio is priced significantly lower (12-32 cents) despite being Serie A's second-place team, suggesting bookmakers view tournament format or knockout structure as favoring Inter
- ›The 9pp venue divergence indicates different market participant confidence levels or potential data discrepancies between platforms
- ›Polymarket's Inter contract at 68 cents shows stronger confidence than Kalshi's 70 cents despite lower overall platform probability, reflecting contract-level pricing variations
What moved the line
- May 2Winner: Inter↓10pp66→56¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Winner: Inter↑9pp56→65¢ · Polymarket
- May 6Winner: Inter↑5pp65→70¢ · Polymarket
- May 6Winner: Lazio↓4pp32→28¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in general
- What will Donald Trump say during CNBClast 95% · 1d
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms: D Senate, R Houselast 3% · 1d
- Will any member of Trump's Cabinet leave before Aug 2026last 85% · 1d
- What will any participating candidate say during South Carolina GOP gubernatorial debatenolast 7% · 1d
- FC Gifu vs. Matsumoto Yamaga FC - More Marketslast 74% · 2d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (72% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 3 min ago.