Atalanta vs Lazio Winner
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 32% across 4 contracts. Kalshi at 33%, Polymarket at 28% — a 5pp cross-venue gap.
Implied probability
Kalshi
33%
3 contracts
Polymarket
28%
1 contract
Cross-venue gap
5pp
wide divergence
24h move
+1pp
47h ago
24h volume
$304
4 contracts
Closes
May 27, 2026
18 days
30-day trend
Cross-venue edge
Kalshi 33¢ · Polymarket 28¢ · 5pp spread
Buy on Polymarket (28¢, 1 contract) and sell on Kalshi (33¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.
Bracket families
2 clusters across 4 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 17% of their title tokens — “Milan vs Atalanta Winner” vs “Coppa Italia: Winner: Lazio”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Milan vs Atalanta Winner
Cluster 2
Coppa Italia: Winner: Lazio
Coppa Italia: Winner: Lazio
0x5f3b48…d871
Analysis
This 31% probability indicates that prediction market participants see Atalanta as roughly a 1-in-3 favorite to win against Lazio in an upcoming match. The pricing reflects Atalanta's recent form and table positioning in Serie A, though the modest 3 percentage-point gap between venues suggests genuine uncertainty rather than consensus. The outcome will be determined by head-to-head performance on match day, with factors like team injuries, tactical adjustments, and recent winning streaks influencing odds. Resolution occurs immediately upon match completion, making this a straightforward binary event tied to a specific fixture with no external variables affecting the result once play begins.
- ›Atalanta's current Serie A standing and recent form against top-half teams compared to Lazio's defensive record
- ›Injury status of key players on both squads, particularly in midfield and attack, which affects team composition for match day
- ›Home/away advantage if applicable, and historical head-to-head record in direct matchups
- ›Volume concentration on related contracts (notably Lazio vs Inter at 53¢ and 20¢) suggests market may be pricing Atalanta uncertainty differently across competition contexts
- ›The cross-venue gap of 3 percentage points between Kalshi and Polymarket indicates limited arbitrage opportunity and moderate confidence in the 31% level
What moved the line
- May 6Winner: Lazio↓4pp32→28¢ · Polymarket
- May 6Atalanta↑3pp23→26¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 3 min ago.