Coritiba FBC vs. SC Internacional
Leader sits at 36% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 35%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
SC Internacional
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
35¢
Coritiba FBC
Spread
1pp
contested
24h volume
$499
thin orderbook
Closes
May 9, 2026
0 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Coritiba FBC vs. SC Internacional
Analysis
This 35% probability means traders currently assess Coritiba FBC as a slight underdog against SC Internacional, with roughly one-in-three odds of winning. The market pricing reflects uncertainty typical of Brazilian league matchups, where form, recent results, and head-to-head records create meaningful variation. The primary drivers of this level are each team's current league position, recent win-loss records, and injury status heading into the fixture. The match itself will resolve the uncertainty; the specific date and kickoff time will determine when this contract settles. Significant movement would likely follow confirmed team lineups, major injury announcements, or weather conditions affecting play style. Currently, draw odds at 30% suggest the market sees meaningful probability across multiple outcomes rather than a clear favorite.
- ›Coritiba's recent league form and position relative to Internacional in the current standings
- ›Head-to-head historical record and performance differentials in away vs. home matches
- ›Injury status and squad availability confirmed within 48 hours of kickoff
- ›Draw probability at 30% indicates competitive balance; Coritiba at 35% reflects marginal underdog status rather than strong consensus
- ›Match venue (home or away for Coritiba) and historical performance patterns at that location
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 3 h ago.