Coupe de France
Leader sits at 73% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 28%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Winner: Lens
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
28¢
Winner: Nice
Spread
45pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Jun 5, 2026
27 days
Venue
Polymarket
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Coupe de France: Winner
Coupe de France: Winner: Nice
0x9e9229…4ba4
Coupe de France: Winner: Lens
0xe55d11…4f3a
Analysis
The Coupe de France final is expected to feature Lens as the favored winner at 64% probability, with Nice as the primary alternative at 35%. This reflects current market assessment of the teams' relative strength heading into the match. The probability would shift based on team form, injuries to key players, and tactical adjustments in the days before the final. The match itself—scheduled for early June 2026—will definitively resolve this outcome. Market depth is limited, with minimal 24-hour volume on the Lens contract, suggesting these prices may not reflect deep liquidity. Any significant roster changes, unexpected eliminations, or shifts in momentum during remaining semifinal play could reshape these odds substantially.
- ›Lens contract priced at 65¢ reflects marginal edge, not dominant positioning
- ›Nice at 35¢ represents meaningful probability contingent on semifinal results
- ›Zero 24-hour volume on leading contract indicates thin market liquidity
- ›Final scheduled for early June 2026; outcomes depend on intervening tournament progression
- ›Current pricing based on pre-semifinal state; actual finalist identities will reset market assumptions
What moved the line
- May 2Winner: Lens↓19pp66→47¢ · Polymarket
- May 2Winner: Nice↓12pp35→23¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Winner: Nice↑12pp23→35¢ · Polymarket
- May 6Winner: Lens↑12pp53→65¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Winner: Lens↑6pp47→53¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (73% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 4 min ago.