Strasbourg Alsace vs Nice Winner
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 34% across 7 contracts. Kalshi at 33%, Polymarket at 36% — a 3pp cross-venue gap.
Implied probability
Kalshi
33%
3 contracts
Polymarket
36%
4 contracts
Cross-venue gap
3pp
modest gap
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$1K
7 contracts
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
236 days
30-day trend
Cross-venue edge
Kalshi 33¢ · Polymarket 36¢ · 3pp spread
Buy on Kalshi (33¢, 3 contracts) and sell on Polymarket (36¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.
Bracket families
4 clusters across 7 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 14% of their title tokens — “Angers vs Strasbourg Alsace Winner” vs “Venice Mayoral Election Winner”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Angers vs Strasbourg Alsace Winner
Cluster 2
Venice Mayoral Election Winner
Cluster 3
Dublin-Central By-Election Winner: Janice Boylan
Dublin-Central By-Election Winner: Janice Boylan
0xc5c7e7…523a
Cluster 4
Coupe de France: Winner: Nice
Coupe de France: Winner: Nice
0x9e9229…4ba4
What moved the line
- May 6Strasbourg Alsace↑36pp5→41¢ · Kalshi
- May 6Angers↑24pp5→29¢ · Kalshi
- May 7Andrea Martella↓17pp83→66¢ · Polymarket
- May 7Simone Venturini↑15pp16→31¢ · Polymarket
- May 2Winner: Nice↓12pp35→23¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 3 min ago.