CR Brasil vs. Operário Ferroviário EC
Leader sits at 46% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 28%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
CR Brasil
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
28¢
Draw (CR Brasil vs. Operário
Spread
18pp
contested
24h volume
$4
thin orderbook
Closes
May 9, 2026
0 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
CR Brasil vs. Operário Ferroviário EC
Analysis
This probability indicates market participants view a draw outcome as slightly more likely than an Operário Ferroviário EC victory in an upcoming CR Brasil vs. Operário Ferroviário EC match, with both outcomes trading within a narrow 1-point spread. The tight clustering around 27–28% suggests substantial uncertainty rather than conviction. Draw odds in Brazilian football typically reflect competitive balance and venue conditions; movements would likely follow team form, recent head-to-head patterns, or lineup changes announced before kickoff. The match date and official team news would be the primary catalysts for repricing, as concrete injury reports or tactical shifts could shift probability toward either outcome or strengthen the draw case.
- ›Recent form and goal-scoring efficiency of both CR Brasil and Operário Ferroviário EC in the weeks leading up to the fixture
- ›Head-to-head historical record, including draw frequency and typical goal totals in prior meetings
- ›Home-field advantage and venue attendance patterns, which influence defensive stability and draw likelihood
- ›Confirmed lineup availability—injuries to key players or suspensions would alter scoring potential and draw probability
- ›Kickoff date and market liquidity; low 24-hour volume ($0 reported) suggests limited recent trading activity and potential for sharper repricing upon match announcement confirmation
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 3 h ago.