SimpleFunctions
Winner-take-all · 9 outcomes9 contractsPolymarketrefreshed 3 h agoCloses May 9, 2026 · 0d

CR Brasil vs. Operário Ferroviário EC - More Markets

Leader sits at 69% across 9 bound outcomes, runner-up at 46%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.

Leader probability

69%

O/U 1.5

runner-up 46¢leader 69¢

Outcomes

9

winner-take-all

Runner-up

46¢

Both Teams to Score

Spread

23pp

contested

24h volume

$0

thin orderbook

Closes

May 9, 2026

0 days

Venue

Polymarket

9 bound

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayO/U 1.5: 69% (2 days, 2 points)O/U 1.5: 69% on 2026-05-07Both Teams to Score: 50% (2 days, 2 points)Both Teams to Score: 50% on 2026-05-07O/U 2.5: 42% on 2026-05-07
O/U 1.569¢Both Teams to Score50¢O/U 2.542¢
Top 3 candidates by current price · 2d

Bracket family

How the bracket ladder is priced.

Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.

Analysis

This market reflects the probability that both CR Brasil and Operário Ferroviário EC will score in their upcoming fixture. The 50% probability on the 'Both Teams to Score' contract indicates the market perceives roughly equal likelihood of a multi-goal outcome versus a match where at least one team is shut out. Factors influencing this level include each team's recent offensive and defensive form, their head-to-head scoring patterns, and current lineup availability. The match itself will definitively resolve this contract once played, with resolution depending on whether both teams register at least one goal across the 90+ minutes. The low trading volume across all three related contracts suggests limited market participation, which may mean the probability reflects thin liquidity rather than deep consensus. Teams' tactical approaches—whether either side prioritizes defensive solidity—will be the primary determinant of the outcome.

  • Recent goal-scoring frequency for both CR Brasil and Operário Ferroviário EC in their respective recent matches
  • Defensive record and goals-conceded average for each team over their last 5-10 fixtures
  • Head-to-head history between these teams, if available, regarding scoring patterns and defensive approaches
  • Current player availability, particularly key attacking or defensive personnel, which may affect each team's expected output
  • Match timing and context (league position, motivation, potential fixture congestion) that might influence tactical setup

What moved the line

  • May 7Operário Ferroviário EC (-1.5)3pp129¢ · Polymarket
  • May 7Operário Ferroviário EC (-2.5)3pp1310¢ · Polymarket

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

More like this

Adjacent prediction questions.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 3 h ago.