CR Vasco da Gama vs. CA Paranaense - More Markets: CA Paranaense (-1.5)
Leader sits at 8% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 3%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
CA Paranaense (-1.5)
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
3¢
CA Paranaense (-2.5)
Spread
5pp
contested
24h volume
$6
thin orderbook
Closes
May 10, 2026
1 days
Venue
Polymarket
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
CR Vasco da Gama vs. CA Paranaense - More Markets: CA Paranaense
Analysis
This probability reflects the current market expectation that CA Paranaense will win by at least 1.5 goals against CR Vasco da Gama. At 10%, the market is pricing this outcome as unlikely but plausible. The low probability suggests that bettors currently favor either a close Vasco victory, a draw, or a Paranaense win by a smaller margin. Recent form, head-to-head records, and team roster availability typically drive such spreads. The main catalyst is the match itself—scheduled completion will determine whether Paranaense achieves the required goal differential. Market movement before kickoff would reflect late lineup changes, injury news, or shifts in perceived team strength. The thin 24-hour volume on the (-2.5) contract indicates limited recent trading activity, suggesting the current price may reflect slower market activity rather than strong consensus.
- ›Recent goal-scoring form: Paranaense's average goals per match versus Vasco's recent defensive record directly impacts the probability of a 1.5+ goal margin
- ›Head-to-head historical performance: Historical results between these teams establish baseline expectations for goal differential patterns
- ›Team roster status: Key player availability or injuries for either side, announced before kickoff, could significantly shift win probability
- ›Home/away designation: The venue (if applicable) influences expected goal output and team tactical approach
- ›Current league position and momentum: Each team's recent performance trajectory in their league competition affects perceived strength gap
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (8% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 5 min ago.