CS Independiente Rivadavia vs. Fluminense FC - More Markets
Leader sits at 68% across 9 bound outcomes, runner-up at 49%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
O/U 1.5
Outcomes
9
winner-take-all
Runner-up
49¢
Both Teams to Score
Spread
19pp
contested
24h volume
$57K
liquid
Closes
May 7, 2026
0 days
Venue
Polymarket
9 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
CS Independiente Rivadavia vs. Fluminense FC - More Markets
CS Independiente Rivadavia vs. Fluminense FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0x735342…ad9d
CS Independiente Rivadavia vs. Fluminense FC - More Markets: Both Teams to Score
0x9ff78c…90df
CS Independiente Rivadavia vs. Fluminense FC - More Markets: O/U 1.5
0xd8a7d5…4976
CS Independiente Rivadavia vs. Fluminense FC - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0x8b09a6…fc9e
CS Independiente Rivadavia vs. Fluminense FC - More Markets: Fluminense FC (-2.5)
0xff496f…1114
CS Independiente Rivadavia vs. Fluminense FC - More Markets: CS Independiente Rivadavia (-1.5)
0x43d406…e39b
CS Independiente Rivadavia vs. Fluminense FC - More Markets: Fluminense FC (-1.5)
0x5fff26…3c5a
CS Independiente Rivadavia vs. Fluminense FC - More Markets: CS Independiente Rivadavia (-2.5)
0x4fe614…7662
CS Independiente Rivadavia vs. Fluminense FC - More Markets: O/U 4.5
0xb4cd80…04dc
Analysis
The 52% probability indicates that traders currently assess CS Independiente Rivadavia as slightly more likely than Fluminense FC to win their matchup. This reflects the market's attempt to price relative team strength, current form, and home-field advantage. The probability would increase if Rivadavia demonstrates strong recent results or if Fluminense faces injury concerns; it would decrease if Fluminense shows improved performance or Rivadavia stumbles. The match outcome itself will resolve the contract when the game concludes. Notably, the related contract on the same matchup pricing Independiente Rivadavia at -1.5 goals (18¢) suggests moderate confidence in Rivadavia's advantage, though the low trading volume ($5 in 24 hours) indicates limited market depth and potential pricing inefficiency.
- ›The 52% leader probability exceeds the 36¢ Fluminense win contract on the same match, suggesting the market structure may be pricing uncertainty differently across contract types or experiencing low liquidity constraints
- ›Recent head-to-head records, league standings, and seasonal form of both clubs would directly influence whether traders view this as close to a coin flip or materially favor either side
- ›Home-field advantage and location of the match (if applicable) represent a concrete factor that affects win probabilities for comparable teams
- ›Injury status and lineup availability for key players on either squad can shift expectations by multiple percentage points depending on player quality
- ›The match date and time relative to the current market observation date determines whether the probability reflects pre-match expectations or has narrowed based on team news
What moved the line
- May 7O/U 1.5↓24pp67→43¢ · Polymarket
- May 7O/U 2.5↓20pp40→20¢ · Polymarket
- May 7Both Teams to Score↓17pp48→31¢ · Polymarket
- May 6Fluminense FC (-1.5)↓17pp27→10¢ · Polymarket
- May 6CS Independiente Rivadavia (-2.5)↓17pp22→5¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 1 d ago.