SimpleFunctions
ClosedLast odds shown below are frozen at close (May 7, 2026). Future questions tracked on /odds.
Winner-take-all · 9 outcomes9 contractsPolymarketclosed 2 d agoCloses May 7, 2026 · 0d

CS Independiente Rivadavia vs. Fluminense FC - More Markets: CS Independiente Rivadavia (-1.5)

Leader sits at 68% across 9 bound outcomes, runner-up at 49%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.

Leader probability

68%

O/U 1.5

runner-up 49¢leader 68¢

Outcomes

9

winner-take-all

Runner-up

49¢

Both Teams to Score

Spread

19pp

contested

24h volume

$57K

liquid

Closes

May 7, 2026

0 days

Venue

Polymarket

9 bound

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayO/U 1.5: 43% (3 days, 2 points)O/U 1.5: 43% on 2026-05-07Both Teams to Score: 31% (3 days, 3 points)Both Teams to Score: 31% on 2026-05-07O/U 2.5: 20% (3 days, 3 points)O/U 2.5: 20% on 2026-05-07
O/U 1.543¢Both Teams to Score31¢O/U 2.520¢
Top 3 candidates by current price · 3d

Bracket family

How the bracket ladder is priced.

Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.

Analysis

This market reflects traders' assessment that CS Independiente Rivadavia has an 18% chance of winning their match against Fluminense FC with a -1.5 goal spread, meaning Rivadavia would need to win by at least two goals. The relatively low probability suggests Fluminense is favored, which aligns with the Brazilian club's higher historical profile and current standing. The probability is primarily driven by team form, recent head-to-head records, and home-field advantage factors. The match itself—when it is scheduled—will be the decisive catalyst that resolves this uncertainty, as the outcome will either confirm the market's lean toward Fluminense or prove traders underestimated Rivadavia's capacity for a decisive victory.

  • Fluminense's recent league performance and position in their domestic competition versus Rivadavia's current form and ranking
  • Home-field status: whether Rivadavia plays at home or away, as this significantly affects win probability by multiple percentage points
  • Head-to-head history between these clubs if available, including goal differentials and competitive context from previous meetings
  • Injury status and squad availability of key players on both sides leading up to match day
  • Odds movement on competing markets for this same fixture, which may indicate late information affecting trader positioning

What moved the line

  • May 7O/U 1.524pp6743¢ · Polymarket
  • May 7O/U 2.520pp4020¢ · Polymarket
  • May 7Both Teams to Score17pp4831¢ · Polymarket
  • May 6Fluminense FC (-1.5)17pp2710¢ · Polymarket
  • May 6CS Independiente Rivadavia (-2.5)17pp225¢ · Polymarket

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

More like this

Adjacent prediction questions.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 2 d ago.