SimpleFunctions
ClosedLast odds shown below are frozen at close (May 7, 2026). Future questions tracked on /odds.
Winner-take-all · 9 outcomes9 contractsPolymarketclosed 2 d agoCloses May 7, 2026 · 0d

CS Independiente Rivadavia vs. Fluminense FC - More Markets: O/U 1.5

Leader sits at 68% across 9 bound outcomes, runner-up at 49%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.

Leader probability

68%

O/U 1.5

runner-up 49¢leader 68¢

Outcomes

9

winner-take-all

Runner-up

49¢

Both Teams to Score

Spread

19pp

contested

24h volume

$57K

liquid

Closes

May 7, 2026

0 days

Venue

Polymarket

9 bound

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayO/U 1.5: 43% (3 days, 2 points)O/U 1.5: 43% on 2026-05-07Both Teams to Score: 31% (3 days, 3 points)Both Teams to Score: 31% on 2026-05-07O/U 2.5: 20% (3 days, 3 points)O/U 2.5: 20% on 2026-05-07
O/U 1.543¢Both Teams to Score31¢O/U 2.520¢
Top 3 candidates by current price · 3d

Bracket family

How the bracket ladder is priced.

Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.

Analysis

This market reflects a 68% probability that the CS Independiente Rivadavia vs. Fluminense FC match will have fewer than 1.5 total goals scored. The current probability leans toward a low-scoring outcome, suggesting market participants expect either strong defensive play, limited offensive opportunities, or conservative team tactics. The market is driven primarily by Fluminense's recent form and defensive capabilities, while Independiente Rivadavia's attacking potency represents the main uncertainty pushing against the under. The match outcome itself—occurring on the scheduled fixture date—will definitively resolve this contract, as the final goal total becomes an objective fact. Limited trading volume ($5 in 24-hour activity) on Polymarket indicates relatively modest liquidity and potential sensitivity to new information about team lineups or conditions.

  • Fluminense's defensive record and goal-concession rate in recent matches
  • Independiente Rivadavia's scoring efficiency and average goals per game this season
  • Head-to-head historical patterns between these teams if available
  • Team news regarding key forwards or defensive injuries closer to match date
  • Venue conditions and potential weather impact on playing style

What moved the line

  • May 7O/U 1.524pp6743¢ · Polymarket
  • May 7O/U 2.520pp4020¢ · Polymarket
  • May 7Both Teams to Score17pp4831¢ · Polymarket
  • May 6Fluminense FC (-1.5)17pp2710¢ · Polymarket
  • May 6CS Independiente Rivadavia (-2.5)17pp225¢ · Polymarket

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

More like this

Adjacent prediction questions.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 2 d ago.