Will Vitality win BLAST Rivals Season 1
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 16% across 15 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
16%
15 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$10K
15 contracts
Closes
Jun 8, 2026
30 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
12 clusters across 15 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 33% of their title tokens — “Will The Mongolz win” vs “Will Team Falcons win”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will The Mongolz win
Cluster 2
Will Team Falcons win
Cluster 3
Will PARIVISION win
Cluster 4
Will Aurora Gaming win PGL Astana
Will Aurora Gaming win PGL Astana?: Aurora Gaming
KXCS2-AST26-AUR
Cluster 5
Will Vitality win IEM Atlanta
Will Vitality win IEM Atlanta?: Vitality
KXCS2-IEMATL26-VIT
Cluster 6
Will Spirit win PGL Astana
Will Spirit win PGL Astana?: Spirit
KXCS2-AST26-TS
Cluster 7
Will FURIA win PGL Astana
Will FURIA win PGL Astana?: FURIA
KXCS2-AST26-FURIA
Cluster 8
Will G2 win PGL Astana
Will G2 win PGL Astana?: G2
KXCS2-AST26-G2
Cluster 9
Will MOUZ win PGL Astana
Will MOUZ win PGL Astana?: MOUZ
KXCS2-AST26-MOUZ
Cluster 10
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Atlanta
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Atlanta?: Natus Vincere
KXCS2-IEMATL26-NAVI
Cluster 11
Will FUT Esports win IEM Atlanta
Will FUT Esports win IEM Atlanta?: FUT Esports
KXCS2-IEMATL26-FUT
Cluster 12
Will Astralis win IEM Atlanta
Will Astralis win IEM Atlanta?: Astralis
KXCS2-IEMATL26-AST
Analysis
This market reflects the probability that Vitality will win BLAST Rivals Season 1, a competitive Counter-Strike tournament. The 37% aggregate probability masks a significant 29-percentage-point gap between venues, with Kalshi pricing at 35% and Polymarket at 64%, suggesting disagreement about Vitality's tournament prospects. The outcome depends on team performance, roster strength relative to competitors, and tournament format. The resolution will occur when BLAST Rivals Season 1 concludes and a winner is officially declared. Key considerations include Vitality's recent competitive record in Counter-Strike, the strength of rival teams in the field, any roster changes before the tournament, and whether recent tournaments indicate upward or downward momentum for the organization.
- ›Vitality's head-to-head performance against other tournament favorites in recent Counter-Strike competitions
- ›Official BLAST Rivals Season 1 tournament bracket, seeding, and competitor roster confirmations
- ›Cross-venue pricing disparity (29pp) suggests material disagreement; one venue may be mispricing relative to recent team performance data
- ›Trading volume on Kalshi ($7,507 24h) substantially exceeds Polymarket volume, potentially indicating more informed pricing on the venue with deeper liquidity
- ›Tournament format details (single/double elimination, group stage structure) affecting Vitality's path to victory
What moved the line
- May 6Vitality↑41pp30→71¢ · Kalshi
- May 6Team Falcons↑25pp4→29¢ · Kalshi
- May 3Vitality↑20pp10→30¢ · Kalshi
- May 6Spirit↑15pp4→19¢ · Kalshi
- May 6Natus Vincere↑13pp3→16¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 1 min ago.