Cuban regime falls in 2026
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 18% across 1 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
18%
1 contract
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$921
1 contracts
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
236 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Cuban regime falls in 2026
Cuban regime falls in 2026?
0x656235…d7df
Analysis
This probability represents the estimated chance that Cuba's current government structure fundamentally changes or is replaced by a different regime within 2026. At 18%, the market reflects skepticism about near-term regime collapse, though not impossibility. The probability is driven by Cuba's persistent economic hardship, limited foreign support, and generational tensions—factors that could trigger instability—weighed against the regime's security apparatus, lack of organized internal opposition, and historical resilience through crises. The primary uncertainty hinges on whether economic conditions deteriorate sharply enough to trigger simultaneous military defection and popular uprising, or conversely, whether economic reforms or external support stabilize the government. Key monitored developments include currency collapse severity, military loyalty indicators, and whether organized dissent emerges beyond isolated protests.
- ›Cuba's foreign exchange reserves and ability to sustain imports relative to baseline economic output
- ›Evidence of military unit defection, corruption within security forces, or public statements by ranking officers expressing discontent
- ›Magnitude and coordination of anti-government demonstrations or strikes beyond typical isolated protest activity
- ›Changes in external support patterns from allies such as Venezuela, Russia, or China that could affect regime sustainability
- ›Succession stability if Díaz-Canel's authority faces organized challenge from within the ruling Communist Party apparatus
What moved the line
- May 6Cuban regime falls in 2026?↓3pp22→19¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (18% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 3 min ago.