Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire
Leader sits at 57% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 30%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Côte d'Ivoire
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
30¢
Draw (Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivo
Spread
27pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Jun 25, 2026
47 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire
Analysis
The 35% probability reflects market belief that Curaçao will defeat Côte d'Ivoire in an upcoming match. This estimate sits notably below even odds, suggesting traders view Côte d'Ivoire as the favored side. The probability is driven by relative team strength assessments—Côte d'Ivoire ranks higher in FIFA standings and has stronger recent competitive history—though Curaçao's home-field advantage and recent form could narrow the gap. Market depth appears limited, with trading volume concentrated on related Germany matchups (93¢ and 71¢), suggesting uncertainty about the exact fixture details or date. The primary catalyst will be the match itself, which will definitively resolve the outcome. Until that occurs, shifts in this probability will likely reflect updated team news, lineup confirmations, or betting-market consensus changes as the fixture date approaches.
- ›Côte d'Ivoire's FIFA ranking (currently 43rd) versus Curaçao's (currently 81st) at time of market assessment
- ›Trading volume disparity: Germany vs. Curaçao contract has $1,209 24-hour volume versus Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire at $53, suggesting market focus on the higher-volume pair rather than this specific matchup
- ›Home-field advantage location for Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire fixture (if applicable), which typically shifts winning probabilities 5-10 percentage points
- ›Recent head-to-head history and competitive results between the two teams in the past 12-24 months
- ›Confirmation of actual match date and format, since current contracts reference multiple different Germany matchups indicating potential fixture ambiguity
What moved the line
- May 2Draw (Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire)↓5pp37→32¢ · Polymarket
- May 6Draw (Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire)↓5pp34→29¢ · Polymarket
- May 6Côte d'Ivoire↑4pp58→62¢ · Polymarket
- May 2Côte d'Ivoire↑3pp55→58¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 4 min ago.