Cusco FC vs. Estudiantes de La Plata
Leader sits at 42% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 31%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Estudiantes de La Plata
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
31¢
Draw (Cusco FC vs. Estudiant
Spread
11pp
contested
24h volume
$410
thin orderbook
Closes
May 6, 2026
0 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Cusco FC vs. Estudiantes de La Plata
Analysis
Markets currently assess Estudiantes de La Plata as a 38% favorite over Cusco FC in an upcoming match, with Cusco FC priced at 33%, indicating a lean but not decisive preference. The pricing reflects Estudiantes' likely superior league position and recent form compared to Cusco FC, though the gap remains modest enough to suggest genuine uncertainty. Over/under markets priced at 39% (2.5 goals) suggest expectation of a relatively low-scoring contest. Resolution occurs at the match's conclusion, which determines whether Estudiantes wins, Cusco wins, or the match ends in a draw. Movement in these prices would hinge on team news, injury updates, or recent performance shifts before kickoff. The 24-hour trading volume concentration in the Estudiantes contract ($25) versus Cusco ($7) indicates stronger retail confidence in the favorite, though absolute volumes remain modest.
- ›Estudiantes de La Plata holds higher league ranking and recent form advantage, which markets have priced into a 38% win probability versus 33% for Cusco FC
- ›Modest 5-percentage-point gap between the two main contracts suggests meaningful uncertainty about match outcome rather than market consensus
- ›Over/under pricing at 39% for 2.5 goals indicates expectation of constrained scoring, which would favor defensive setup and potentially the higher-ranked team
- ›Trading volume strongly skewed toward Estudiantes contract ($25 vs $7 in 24h), suggesting asymmetric confidence in the favorite but also potentially thinner Cusco backing
- ›Actual match kickoff date and pre-match roster confirmations would be the final catalyst affecting these prices before resolution
What moved the line
- May 7Draw (Cusco FC vs. Estudiantes de La Plata)↑60pp40→100¢ · Polymarket
- May 7Cusco FC↓37pp37→0¢ · Polymarket
- May 7Estudiantes de La Plata↓27pp27→0¢ · Polymarket
- May 6Estudiantes de La Plata↓11pp38→27¢ · Polymarket
- May 6Draw (Cusco FC vs. Estudiantes de La Plata)↑11pp29→40¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 1 d ago.