SimpleFunctions
1 contractPolymarketrefreshed 4 min agoCloses May 31, 2026 · 22d

Czechia Fortuna Liga

Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 3% across 1 Polymarket contracts.

Implied probability

3%
0%50%100%

Kalshi

not bound

Polymarket

3%

1 contract

Cross-venue gap

single venue

24h move

no pin

24h volume

$0

1 contracts

Closes

May 31, 2026

22 days

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayAggregate: 3% (10 days, 10 points)Aggregate: 3% on 2026-05-08
Aggregate of 1 contract · 10d

Bracket family

How the bracket ladder is priced.

Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.

Cluster 1

Czechia Fortuna Liga: Winner: Sparta Prague

1 contract$0

Analysis

The 97% probability indicates that traders view Slavia Prague as heavily favored to win the Czechia Fortuna Liga championship. This extreme confidence reflects the team's current standing in the league and their performance trajectory relative to competitors, primarily Sparta Prague. The probability could shift based on head-to-head results in remaining matches, injuries to key players, or unexpected performance changes from either contender. The main resolution driver is the completion of the league season, as final standings will determine the champion. Markets with this pricing pattern typically occur when one team has built a substantial points lead or demonstrated clear superiority, leaving limited paths for rivals to close the gap. Trading volume remains light, which is common for markets approaching resolution or with heavily skewed outcomes.

  • Slavia Prague's current points total and remaining matches versus Sparta Prague's path to overtake them
  • Head-to-head record and goal differential between the two clubs during the season
  • Injury status or suspensions affecting key players on either team
  • Results in the next 2-3 scheduled matches, particularly any direct contest between Slavia and Sparta
  • Historical volatility: whether 97% pricing has held through comparable late-season scenarios in past Fortuna Liga seasons

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

Lateral coverage

Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.

This page aggregates 1 contract (3% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 4 min ago.