Czechia vs. Mexico
Leader sits at 40% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 35%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Mexico
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
35¢
Draw (Czechia vs. Mexico)
Spread
5pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Jun 25, 2026
47 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Czechia vs. Mexico
Analysis
This 35% probability reflects the market's assessment that Czechia will defeat Mexico in their upcoming matchup. The odds suggest Mexico is favored, but Czechia is given a meaningful chance based on recent form and head-to-head dynamics. Key drivers include each team's current squad strength, recent competitive results, and home-field advantage if applicable. The probability will likely shift based on team news—injuries to key players, tactical adjustments, or unexpected roster changes could significantly move the line. The match itself will provide definitive resolution, making pre-game developments the main catalyst for probability shifts before kickoff.
- ›Czechia's recent tournament performance and FIFA ranking relative to Mexico's current standing
- ›Mexico's historical record against European opponents and consistency in international competitions
- ›Availability and fitness status of key players for both teams in the weeks before the match
- ›Home-field advantage, venue conditions, and whether this is a qualifying match or friendly encounter
- ›Head-to-head record between these teams and performance trends in similar competitive contexts
What moved the line
- May 2Mexico↑3pp37→40¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 3 min ago.