Czechia vs. South Africa
Leader sits at 49% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 31%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Czechia
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
31¢
Draw (Czechia vs. South Afri
Spread
18pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Jun 18, 2026
40 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Czechia vs. South Africa
Analysis
This 35% probability reflects market estimates that Czechia will defeat South Africa in an upcoming match. The cross-venue gap of 8 percentage points suggests differing assessments across trading communities, with Polymarket traders pricing Czechia's chances higher than Kalshi participants. The main drivers of this probability level are the relative strength and recent form of both teams, along with home-field advantages if applicable. The resolution will depend on the match outcome itself, which appears scheduled for a specific date in the near term. Volume on related Mexico vs. South Africa contracts suggests broader regional tournament context, indicating this matchup may be part of a larger competition bracket.
- ›Kalshi and Polymarket show an 8-percentage-point divergence, with Polymarket pricing Czechia 37% versus Kalshi's 29%, suggesting disagreement on team strength assessment
- ›Top-volume contracts on both exchanges reference Mexico vs. South Africa at 63-65¢, indicating the tournament structure and related matchups influence trader confidence in individual results
- ›South Africa appears in multiple high-volume contracts, suggesting market participants view this team's performance as a key variable affecting overall tournament probabilities
- ›The 35% aggregate probability implies roughly 2-to-1 odds favoring South Africa, reflecting baseline expectations before match-specific conditions are factored in
- ›Modest trading volumes on direct Czechia vs. South Africa contracts ($108-488 range) suggest meaningful uncertainty and potential for probability shifts as new information emerges
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 4 min ago.