SimpleFunctions
Winner-take-all · 3 outcomes3 contractsPolymarketrefreshed 3 h agoCloses May 9, 2026 · 0d

Daejeon Hana Citizen FC vs. Pohang Steelers FC

Leader sits at 46% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 28%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.

Leader probability

46%

Daejeon Hana Citizen FC

runner-up 28¢leader 46¢

Outcomes

3

winner-take-all

Runner-up

28¢

Draw (Daejeon Hana Citizen F

Spread

18pp

contested

24h volume

$2K

modest

Closes

May 9, 2026

0 days

Venue

Polymarket

3 bound

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayDaejeon Hana Citizen FC: 43% (2 days, 2 points)Daejeon Hana Citizen FC: 43% on 2026-05-07Draw (Daejeon Hana Citizen FC vs. Pohang Steelers FC): 30% (2 days, 2 points)Draw (Daejeon Hana Citizen FC vs. Pohang Steelers FC): 30% on 2026-05-07Pohang Steelers FC: 28% on 2026-05-06
Daejeon Hana Citizen FC43¢Draw (Daejeon Hana Citizen FC vs. Pohang Steelers FC)30¢Pohang Steelers FC28¢
Top 3 candidates by current price · 2d

Bracket family

How the bracket ladder is priced.

Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.

Analysis

The market assigns a 45% probability to Daejeon Hana Citizen FC winning this match, with Pohang Steelers FC at 32% and a draw at 33%. This reflects modest favoring of Daejeon, though the clustering of probabilities near one-third suggests meaningful uncertainty. The current pricing likely reflects recent form, head-to-head records, and home-field advantage if applicable. Movement in these prices would depend on team news—injuries, lineup changes, or roster updates—and any shift in seasonal performance metrics. The match itself serves as the resolving event; the winner will be determined by the final score on match day. Low trading volume indicates limited conviction or market attention, meaning substantial new information or betting activity could shift the probability meaningfully in either direction.

  • Recent league standings and points differential between Daejeon and Pohang in the 2026 K League season
  • Head-to-head historical performance and specific match records between these clubs
  • Confirmed team lineups, injury status of key players, and managerial tactical adjustments closer to match date
  • Home-field advantage if the match is played at one team's stadium versus neutral venue
  • Match timing relative to mid-season form and any concurrent competitions that might affect squad rotation or fatigue

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

More like this

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 3 h ago.